Asmara is the capital city of Eritrea a country which found in the northern tip of the Ethiopian Plateau in the North-Eastern part of the Continent. It is naturally elevated and is at the height of 7628 feet. It is the sixth highest capital in the world by its capital. In 2017, it was declared as a world heritage site by the UNESCO. There is a population of close to one million people, it is one of the cleanest and well-planned cities in the continent.
The city Asmara is also called as the African city of Women, it is because this city has a very high population of women as compared to men. There are three times more women than men in this city.
According to Eritrean oral tradition history the history of Asmara goes back to the 800 BCE. In which it states that there were four clans initially ruling Asmara. The women suggested that these four clans come together and unite and fight against the opposing clans who are a threat. From this point on the name “Asmara” originated which typically means that “They all came together to unite”.
Asmara was formerly colonised by the Italians who used Asmara to attack the nearby countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, etc. Later on it was passed on the British Empire. It was fully recognised as Asmara the city of Asmara in 1993 after they got their Independence in 1991 from Ethiopia.
At this day the official languages spoken in Asmara is Tigrinya, English and Arabic. Due to the Italian colonisation the city was gifted by Italian Architecture and there are about 95% Christians and 5% Muslims.
The major transportation of this city is bus even though there are also cabs. You need an Archaeological permit in order for you to visit the famous tourist spot of this city that is the National Museum. The second recommended place is the City Park which is known for people coming there for relaxation.
Eritrean economy is one of the strongest economy in the African continent. It stands at sixth place among the top ten currencies of this continent. Eritrean Nakfa is the currency which when compared to the U.S dollar its: 1USD=15ERN. The major manufacturing of this economy is agriculture and meat and diary products. As far as Exports there are mining of minerals such as gold, copper, granite, potash, etc. As the city itself is a UNESCO registered world heritage site there city revenue is majorly contributed by tourists.
The Tinga Tinga Art is considered as an art that has historical value. It is named after the Edward Said Tingatinga who copied and reinvented the art in 1968. Back then he used Masonite and bicycle paint to make the art. Through which he attracted admirers of his work from all over the world which has now become tourist attractions for Tanzania.
Tinga Tinga art is now being made in a village in Dar es Salaam. After the demise of Edward Tingatinga in 1972 there were imitators who started making Tinga Tinga art and kept the art alive. In 1990 they have formed a Tinga Tinga co-operative society. Abdul Amonde Mkura is the senior painter and head of this society as of now. He moved to Dar es Salaam in 1974 and fell in love with the art as he learnt it.
As many people might know that Africa is a country which is rich in its fauna category and there are lots of forests and desserts. It is one of the countries that is still 100% natural in many parts of it unlike all the other countries which are artificial, and man-made. Tinga Tinga art is renowned for its surrealistic and native style. There are lots of admirers of this art and even there are lots of collectors of this art.
Tinga Tinga paintings are all about imagination. Over the years these paintings have had a number of altercations, as these paintings were done on boards initially and changed to fabric material as customers found board heavy to carry. In the early stages in the village, they used to look at animals in real life and draw them from imagination now they also use the modern way of painting like sketching it first and then painting on it.
The head the Society said in an interview that he likes to paint about various subjects from his village and from his past life experiences. But his all-time favorite is drawing elephants. He has painted elephants for over 20 years. The elephants are bigger and stronger than any other animal which has a huge significance he believes. These artists of this village are astonished by the significance and the nature of animals, and they respect them. These paintings are of animal from which these people get inspiration and want others to also get it.
These paintings have evolved to the fact that the youngsters of this society make digital art based on Tinga Tinga and also they have created cartoon series with these art. Tinga Tinga is so highly respected among the Tanzanian people as it’s a curriculum in schools.
Life as a kid in Tanzania is tougher than people presume it to be. The poverty there causes children who are the future of Tanzania, into labourers. Need overcomes all their wants as they need basic necessities for their families to survive.
In Tanzania, around 4.2 million children between the ages of 5 – 17 are working as child labourers. Despite all the amenities given by the government to the people in Tanzania, families have to make their children go and work due to their financial difficulties.
Not only children but mothers are also working as labourers in tough jobs such as stone mining and etc, to earn a living. As there is a lack of rain and many families rely on agriculture as their source of income, their forced to go and work as labourers along with their children in stone mining.
In Tanzania, not only children are working as labourers, but also are forced to quit school because of the hardships they face.
The children working are in the age groups of 5–17 and some of them go to school in the morning and work during the night and some of them quit school and work full time, like from 7 a.m till 8 p.m late in the evening. If the situation is too bad they have to work till they could make buckets of stones worth 4000–5000 according to their necessity for that day.
These children don’t have the normal lifestyle that a child gets, which they too deserve. Even with all the work, most days they don’t even get 3 meals. After all the work till late in the evening and they wake up the next day only to realize they don’t have breakfast which gives them the energy they need to work.
Like every other kid, these kids also have the dream to become an officer or a doctor. But due to their school situation they can’t. They could not afford the uniforms and shoes for the school. Some of the children gave up on dreaming of going to school because they think they will not get any help.
On top of child labour being an unfair act which is still evident in many places like Tanzania, these children gets paid very little even though they work a lot. Even worse, somedays they don’t even get paid.
It is not relevant to them wether they are not well or can’t work due to any medical situation, they wake up everyday and go for work, because many of their parents also have medical problems which makes it impossible for them to work.
Some examples of typical African sports: ⦁ Capoeira: It is a well-known sport that finds its roots both in Africa and Brazil; it combines many elements such as music, martial arts and dance. Indeed, it is composed of sophisticated moves accompanied by intense and powerful kicks.
⦁ Senegalese wrestling- LAMB: It began a century ago and was recreation for fishers and farmers, but now it can be a source of earnings; in fact, top fighters can earn up to 100000 $ per fight!
⦁ Donkey racing: It is an annual race widespread in Lamu, an island free of cars, this race is beautiful, and people are very enthusiastic to see it!
⦁ Nguni- stick fighting: This stick battle can last up to 5 hours! It is an aggressive fight, and some people have died for it; hence it can be considered a bloody sport; players or people who are highly loyal to this sport think that it can be seen as a manner to find one’s cultural expression and that it can enhance skills and discipline.
⦁ Himba: It is typical of northern Namibia, Himba women are characterised by half of their body naked and reddish hair, they do not usually wash their clothes, but they take a smoke bath.
⦁ Pigmy They are people of short stature coming from the rainforest. They have always been the object of great interest. They are primarily found in the rain forests of Rwanda, Uganda and Cameroon.
Typically they are hunters with a unique and significant connection with nature.
⦁ Samburu: they are pastoralists from Northern Kenya. They raise cattle, goats, sheep and camels; as they come from a very humid place, they are usually nomads.
Serengeti Park is among the most famous wildlife parks worldwide. Its fauna comprises various animals such as 1500000 gnus, approximately 300,000 zebras and 5,000,000 gazelles. In addition, many other animals have their home there, such as thousands of lions and leopards, cheetahs, and elephants … they are all waiting for you! The Great Migration is a phenomenon that is important to deciding the Serengeti visit’s timing. During Calvin season (January to March), you should visit the southern and central areas. The other periods of the year, such as in May and June, safari visit the central and western areas of Serengeti. A fascinating piece of information is the origin of the name, which comes from the Maasai word: “Siringet”, which means “place in which the Earth flows to Infinity”. The ecosystem covers almost 15000 km2 of plants and lawns, which are flat and, in some parts, corrugated. In Serengeti, you can enjoy several different types of safaris, from the famous one in a jeep to other original options such as: by horse or on foot. If you prefer to explore it from height, you can fly on charter or even on a hot air balloon, offering you an indescribable view! But which could be the best period to visit such a spectacular place? Therefore, during the dry season, it is suggested that from June to October, this is because when rain is scarce, animals congregate where puddles are present. Thus, their observation is facilitated. Serengeti is not too difficult to reach; it can be possible through aerial way or road. Firstly, it takes approximately 5 hours of flight; otherwise, by safari by car, it will likely take around 8 hours to leave Arusha’s city.
Africa is the continent south of Europe, east of the Atlantic Ocean, west of the Indian ocean and north of Antarctica. It is the second-largest continent connected to Asia through the land bridge of Suez. It lies among the Mediterranean Sea and Indian and Atlantic oceans. Throughout its history, the continent faced several conflicts in different areas. Civil wars took place in different areas of the territory; some of the conflicts in the past happened in Chad, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, and Sierra Leone. The causes of wars are different; each conflict may originate from distinct circumstances. Still, some factors characterizing the African continent may be analyzed as disputes may arise for a diversity of elements, and they can be determining factors to examine thoroughly:
⦁ The problem of ethnicity due to heterogeneity in the African population: Rivalry for ethnic reasons is among the leading causes of conflicts in several African states, such as Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Burundi and an array of other states. Many people, who do not have in-depth knowledge of Africa, may think that this continent is just one group of people. Still, in reality, as it is a vast continent, more than 3000 groups are distinguished for different racial origins, and more than 2100 languages are spoken within this continent. In addition, there are a host of ethnical groups in Africa, so that is not simple to list all of them; the most well-known are:
⦁ Hausa (regards West Africa area, including regions like Benin, Ghana, Cameroon, and Sudan) ⦁ Hutu (comprises regions of central Africa as Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo) ⦁ Igbo (encompassing regions of West Africa as Equatorial Guinea and Gabon) ⦁ Kanuri (regarding Central Africa regions like Niger and Chad)
Africa is suffering conditions of absolute Poverty consequence of an assortment of factors like severe climate and environmental challenges and contexts such as desertification which has involved severe famines and caused many victims and fatalities. A factor to be considered is the large amount of foreign debt borne by the continent, which is among the leading causes determining a worsening of the continent’s extreme poverty state. Possible solutions to causes of conflicts: ⦁ Resources evenly distributed: resources to be spread and distributed equally among the several different geopolitical areas of Africa.
⦁ Safeguard of fundamental human rights: To guarantee fundamental human rights to citizens, such as freedom of speech, religion, and association.
⦁ Elimination or at least reduction of Poverty: people who are victims of Poverty suffer outrageous living conditions causing African people massive harm, endangering their health and being a real threat to survival.
The psychology of people suffering from Poverty can be affected by conditions as above. A person threatened by the uncertainty of survival is likely to attempt to steal, hurt or demolish around and cause pain and suffering.
⦁ Equal access to Education: the whole population, including children, should be able to receive qualitative Education, being fundamental for both social as well as economic development, as it is the most compelling resource to empower people through the learning of both theoretical concepts as well as practical skills and the most such against the ignorance and robust defense against ignorance.
Weeks have gone by, my national exams were nigh, since Mr. Martin Saning’o had passed away from COVID-19. I had a dream. In the dream, Mr. Martin said to me, in Swahili, with rough translation to english as, “Dare to dream big, never give up and always have a spirit big enough to achieve your dreams. Never give up my son and remember I love you!”. I woke up emotional that day but I also had a thought. He has done great works that most don’t know of. I wouldn’t want his works to go unnoticed – I would want people to know of the works that he did and the benefits he has brought to the Maasai community in Terrat, Simanjiro. This is his story.
Martin was born in the early 1960’s in the Simanjiro district of northern Tanzania. This is in the Maasai heartland – the high arid plains south of Arusha. In common with many Maasai of his generation, Martin and his family cannot be sure exactly when he was born. But Martin believed it to be born in 1960 or 1961.
Martin was one among the minute number of Maasai children to have received education at the time. He used his education well. He wanted to give back to society that brought him up, so in the early 1990’s he founded IOPA – Institute for Orkonerei Pastoralists Advancement. Although IOPA’s first priority was to deal with land rights, it also eyed health problems and water supply problems that the Maasai in Terrat faced.
Martin became an activist, and made critical moves to ensure that the Maasai aren’t displaced from their traditional lands – The government had been displacing the Maasai at the time from areas they claimed to be ‘National Park areas’. His moves were seen to be ‘too critical’ to some in high places, and as a result the government initially refused to register IOPA.
As impossible as it may seem, Martin sued the government for displacing the Maasai from their traditional lands. At the time, more than 6000 Maasai had already been displaced by the government form National Parks. IOPA, led by Mr. Martin, filed a number of cases against the government which later on resulted in a landmark ruling by the High Court in IOPA’s favour.
Martin recognized that education was the key to enlighten the Maasai on a number of things: land rights, their own health, their livestock, the ongoing changes in the outside world, and a number of other things. He figured that a community radio would effectively serve this purpose. He took measures to establish a community radio, the first ever in Tanzania. He worked his fingers to the bone – a lot of sleepless nights – and finally the ORS FM first broadcasted news in 2002. The radio was in fact the first ever community radio in Tanzania – or in a larger perspective East Africa. It broadcast news in Kimaasai (the Maasai native language) and also played Maasai music.
After the idea of the community radio, Martin also realised that there was a need for electricity – not only for the radio station but also for the receivers of the information they portrayed. He worked on a number of projects, in association with different international organisations, to bring electricity to the Maasai people.
Martin also worked to help women facing different challenges, most especially those in the maasai areas – they were more prone to treacherous practices – such beatings from husbands, mutilation and harassment. IOPA created a safe haven where beaten women would go to and tell their stories. It also tried to prevent female genital mutilation, FGM, child marriage, and women oppression. IOPA dedicated some of its resources to educate women and raise the status of women in the Maasai society. IOPA also sought to help women economically. IOPA established dairies in Simanjiro with a long-sighted view of enabling women to sell milk and get money, they used to acquire their needs and the needs of their families. In the maasai culture, the only resource that belongs to women is milk.
Martin had broad and liberal outlook in his work, which touched each and almost every age group and social class by the time. For children, IOPA helped establish more than 50 pre-primary and primary schools across the region.
Martin’s work didn’t go unnoticed – he was elected an Ashoka fellow in 2003 and got the attention of a Dutch philanthropist, Dini de Rijcke, and began to work with her through her foundation, Strichting Het Groene Woudt (SHGW). Through working with Ashoka and SHGW, IOPA achieved many of its objectives. The Dutch foundation provided IOPA with 5 dairy plants and generators to power them across the region, and each dairy could process up to 2000 litres of milk into yoghurt, cheese, ghee and butter per day. These products were sold throughout the country. In cooperation with these organizations, IOPA was also able to work on a number of water supply projects, that bore fruits as the people in the dry Maasai lands got water with much more ease than before.
The women’s refuge centre was expanded to also be guest houses that could accommodate visitors to the area. IOPA also added additional generators to build one of the first mini-grids in the country to supply more than 1000 people in Terrat village with electricity, since the government had considered it too expensive to connect Terrat to the national electricity grid.
The IOPA centre in Terrat with guest house, community hall and dairy
Martin was bestowed various awards for his great work such as Social Entrepreneur of the Year 2014 by the Schwab Foundation and World Economic Forum Africa, the Ford Global Community Leadership Award, and Dubai Global Innovator Award.
Martin suggested that IOPA had to try and create viable micro businesses, so that even after funders ended their collaborations, IOPA would still be able to run its activities and thrive. As of today, IOPA’s remaining running projects include ORS FM radio, a few dairy plants, the conference centre, the water business, the guest house, and education and health support project in Terrat.
In 2019, IOPA was changed to Orkonerei Maasai Social Initiatives (OMASI) – an NGO – because of government laws and regulations, and by the end of 2020 Mr. Martin had achieved most of his goals and dreams.
On March 1st, 2021, Martin passed away. I can say that he hasn’t truly died because his works still live on – he lives through his works. He has left a legacy and very big shoes to fill. This story of Martin is supposed to be a motivation to anyone with big dreams, anyone who is fighting against all odds to achieve their dreams. I hope I have done his story justice.
If you will it, it is no dream; and if you do not will it, a dream it is and a dream it will stay
Since centuries ago, climate change has been a matter of grave concern globally. It is also one of the substantial global challenge in the 21st century. Many scientists and local people, through contemporary and indigenous practices respectively, have diverse views pertinent to the meaning, source, and impacts of climate change. In terms of the meaning, it is scientifically agreed that, climate change is a long process at which the components of climate systemvary for many years.
Climate change is further defined by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) as a statistically significant variation that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It includes shifts in the frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather events, as well as slow continuous rise in global mean surface temperature.
Historical Background of Climate Change;
Climate change began in the early of 19th century when the ice age and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In late 19th century scientist first urged that human emission of greenhouse effect could change the climate, also many other theories of climate changes were advanced involving, forces from volcanism and solar variation. In 1960 the warming effect of carbon dioxide become increasing. Some scientists also pointed out that human activities that generate atmospheric aerosols example pollution could have cooling effect as all. During the 1970s scientific opinions increasingly favored the warming effect. By 1990s, as result of improving observation work and confirming the Milankovitch theory of ice age consensus position formed greenhouse gases were deeply involved in most climate change and human cause emission are causing global warming
Moreover, there are some scientists who urged on the urgency on climate change, starting by Joseph Fourier (1768-1830) who started talking about something called the greenhouse effect. He knew that the atmosphere protects us from the sun, and he suggested that the composition of atmosphere will change and could lead to the warming of the earth. A few decades later in 1861 another scientist known as John Tyndall(1820-1893), identified the gases that may cause such effects when he was investigated the absorption of infrared radiation in the different gases, he found that water vapour and hydrocarbons like methane and carbon dioxide, strongly block the radiation and lead to cause the warming in the earth. Other scientist like James and peter kropotkin suggested that ice ages and other climate change were due to change in number of gases emitted in volcanism but was only one of possible causes. Another possibility was solar variation and shifts in ocean current which identified by them. (Croll, 1875)
According to the reportof United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that gathered at Copenhagen in December 2009 to try to reach agreement on global action to combat climate change for the period until the 2012 successor to the Kyoto Protocol that will come from Africa. Based on what is Africa’s interest in this global effort to meet key climate change objectives? how will Africa perform in Copenhagen? will Africa make a difference to the outcomes of the negotiations and the Copenhagen Agreement, given its passive role in Kyoto?
Most analyses of the impacts of climate change that have influenced UNFCCC agreements focuses on medium to long-term projections of carbon emissions and forecasting models of global warming, and cover mainly countries and regions for which relevant data are readily available. This leaves out most developing countries and regions, particularly Africa, due to unavailable data and trajectories. From an African perspective, this is serious and costly. As the poorest continent, Africa is considered most susceptible to climate change due to its vulnerability and inability to cope with the physical, human, and socioeconomic consequences of climate extremes.
Moreover, existing adaptation mechanisms and resources under the Kyoto agreement designed to mitigate climate change’s effects on Africa and other developing regions have been directed at limiting future carbon emissions, rather than addressing the region’s vulnerability and lack of resilience to the impacts of climate change on its economies and populations. As lof ate as April 2007, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that Africa was not acting quickly enough to stem the direct economic and environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007). What this report seemed to have missed or overlooked is that Africa’s concern about climate change is not mainly in terms projections of carbon emission and future environmental damages. It is more about the links between climate change and droughts, desertification, floods, coastal storms, soil erosion contemporary disaster events that threaten lives and livelihoods, and hinder the continent’s economic growth and social progress. (Solomon & Qln, 2007)
Causes of Climate Change
There have been diverse views about the origin of climate change. The debate on the origin covers two major aspects.
First, tells that climate change has been in place for millions, thousands, hundreds and tens of years ago (decades). The proponents of this notion mention the disappearance of flora and fauna species like the dinosaurs which were extinct not because of human, rather due to variations in temperature and rainfalls. They further connect their views with mass extinctions which occurred millions of years ago. Previous studies have presented the first dimension which assert that, climate change is due to natural forces. They associate earth’s orbital variations, Sun rise and set, volcanism etc. as natural events which in turn cause unusual weather patterns out of human control Furthermore, their arguments maintain that, natural forces like land masses drifting, plate tectonics, earthquakes, volcanism etc. fueled climate change.
The second perspective urges that, climate change began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first identified. This notion went far to link that, human activities has been the cause of climate change as they rightly observed the industrial revolutions notably mounted from19th with immense greenhouse gases emissions. They associate Human activities like industrial activities, agricultural activities, mining transportation, and others cause emissions of gases hence lead to drought, floods, etc. not only that but also God’s punishment due to unrepentant human sins, and disobeying fore ancestor’s cultural setups is believed as the cause of climate change to same of the believers.
In Tanzania also there are various human activities which contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases hence influences climate changes. activities like industrial activities, agriculture activities, deforestations, mining activities and burning of fuels are among of the human causes of climate change.
Trigger’s force of climate change and its impacts
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA
Over the centuries and decades, climate change has been perceived as a double sword in terms of its impacts to sectors of economy, living, and non-living worlds.
Climate change projection indicates that the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events will increase. In the last 40 years Tanzania has experienced severe and recurring droughts with devastating effects to agricultural, water and energy sectors. Currently more than 70% of all-natural disasters in Tanzania are hydro-meteorological, and are linked to droughts and ﬂoods. Climate change Impacts various sectors in Tanzania as follows
Agriculture and Food Security
Changing climate has resulted in a general decline in agricultural productivity, including changes in Agro-diversity. The prevalence of crop pest and diseases is also reported to have increased, posing more challenge to agriculture. Furthermore, due to the change in weather patterns that have disturb the agricultural production has impacted food security.
Adverse impact of climate change in agriculture activities
Fresh Water Resources
Increasing rainfall variability and prolonged droughts cause serious pressure in the country’s available water resources. Severe and recurrent droughts in the past few years triggered a decrease in water ﬂows in rivers, hence shrinkage of receiving lakes, declines of water levels in satellite lakes and hydropower dams. Furthermore, some of the perennial rivers have changed to seasonal rivers and some wetlands have dried up.
Variability in precipitation may have direct consequences in infectious disease outbreaks. Increased precipitation may increase the presence of disease vectors by expanding the size of existent larval habitat and creating new breeding grounds. In addition, increased precipitation may support growth in food supplies, which in turn support a greater population of vertebrate reservoirs. Alternatively, ﬂooding may force insect or rodent vectors into houses and increase the likelihood of vector-human contact. IPCC, 2001 indicates that many vector, food and water-borne diseases are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions.
There are also a wider set of indirect impacts from climate change on health, which are linked to other sectors such as food security and malnutrition through reduced agricultural productivity as a result of changes in soil quality, increased crop and livestock pests and diseases, prolonged drought and water scarcity. Reduced agricultural productivity associated with climate change/variability exposes communities to other health risk factors, such as HIV or AIDS.
larval habitat due to floods at Kinondoni
Coastal and Marine Environment
Major climate change related impacts are a result of increases in sea surface temperatures and associated sea level rise. Some of the impacts are destruction of coral reefs, coastal erosion, submergence of small islands, destruction of coastal infrastructures and human settlement, intrusion of sea water into freshwater wells, and degradation of mangrove.
As a result of increasing climate variability, over the last years, the country has experienced increasing incidents of recurrent and prolonged droughts with severe implications on hydro power generation. Power rationing and black outs have become a common phenomenon in Tanzania. This affects individuals’ household and industrial income generating activities. Consequently, additional resources which were committed for other development programs are sometimes being reallocated for thermal electricity generation
The common impacts to all forest’s types include loss of biodiversity; disappearance of wildlife habitats, increased risk of bush ﬁres, limited availability of forest products (timber and non-timber products) and ecosystem shift
Overall, a very high possibility of irreversible losses of biodiversity as a result of such changes in climate are projected with many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species being placed at a much greater risk of extinction than before. Water shortage for the large mammals especially in the years with low rainfall is one of the main challenges facing the wildlife. The places that naturally used to hold water during the dry season no longer hold water long into the dry season. For instance, water dependent animals especially hippopotamus, crocodiles, buffalos and elephants are often found crowded in few remaining water ponds, for example in the Ruaha and Katuma River system
Hippopotamus congregation in small water pools due to water shortage in Katavi River system in 2009
Tourism has close connections to the environment and is considered to be a highly climate sensitive sector. Climate variability determines the length and quality of tourism seasons thus plays a major role in the destination choice and tourist spending. Climate also has an important inﬂuence on environmental conditions that can deter tourists, including infectious disease, wild fires, insects or waterborne pests, and extreme events such as tropical cyclones. the sector is already being impacted by climate change. The manifestations of climate change are highly relevant for tourism destinations and tourists alike. For instance, Mountain Kilimanjaro has lost 80% of its ice cover between 1912 and 2000
Apart from the impacts of sea level rise, which have destroyed cultural, historical, archaeological and heritage sites along coastal areas in the country, heat stress and drought have also caused massive wildlife deaths in the northern tourist zone. Destruction of infrastructure such as roads and bridges are devastating. Road maintenance becomes particularly difﬁcult and expensive during prolonged heavy rains in many parts of the country. For example, the 2006 El Niño rains, left many park roads impassable for a long period of time, and resulted in reduced tourist visits and loss of revenue
Decrease ice coverage at Mount Kilimanjaro as the effect of climate change
Furthermore, climate change has impact on livestock sector, industrial sector, fishing sector infrastructures and transport sector, human settlement, land use and planning and education sector of which these sectors are important for development, employment opportunities and back born of the economy.
CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES IN TANZANIA
In addressing climate change at national level, and local levels various initiatives and programs have been undertaken in Tanzania in the context of UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. implementation of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is further supported by the enabling environment including the National Environment Policy (1997) and the EMA. Not only that but also private sectors and private organizations has played an advantageous part in addressing climate change in Tanzania. Furthermore, climate change adaptation strategy and climate change related programs in the country including REDD and REDD+ projects are among of the initiates towards climate change mitigation, adaptation and coping strategies.
MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND COPING MEASURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA
It is evident that, climate change is happening and will continue to ravage sectors and our livelihoods. Various studies have revealed that, people from different areas have been mitigating, adapting and/or cope with it in order to make lives goes on. In Tanzania also communities mitigate, adopt and cope with climate in various ways through in small extent due to poor awareness on climate change and normally the following are some of the measures taken and suggested for mitigating, adaptation and coping with climate change
Mitigation measures to climate change
Mitigation involves the efforts undertaken to reduce anthropogenic (greenhouse gases) emissions or to enhance natural sinks of greenhouse gases so as to reduce the threats of climate change (to lower the risks). Mitigation measures suggested and taken in Tanzania are like:
Building water reservoirs like dams, ponds etc.
Use of environmentally friendly energy sources like geothermal, natural gas, solar, and wind energy than charcoal, coal and fuelwoods.
Use of organic manure which prevent nutrient and water loss.
Soil as the biggest carbon sink on the planet, sequestrate greenhouse gases by proper soil conservation methods like contour planting and no-till farming which do not disturb the soil.
In reducing methane, farmers may prevent submergence of rice fields and cultivate uplands rice or other upland crops.
Adaptation to climate change involves the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In Tanzania adaptation measures undertaken and suggested are like:
Farmers planting different crops for different seasons
Levees against sea level rise
Temporary and permanent migration
Building water reservoirs
Re-use, recycle and Reduction of the use for resources like water
Rain water harvesting and retention
Changing the planting seasons
Use less greenhouse gases sources of energy
Growing early matured crops
Rearing drought resistant livestock.
Formulation of social climate resilient groups venturing in rural savings, table banking schemes, getting funding from innovations funds and micro-financing institutions.
Establishment of community-based climate change adaptation Organizations
Establishing climate early warning systems
Farming intensification and extensification
Mulching to conserve moisture during droughts.
Chemical weed control
Switching to off-farm activities
However, once we go deep to explore the adaptation measures, one has to find out that there are measures which take a long time to adapt and others take a short time. In this context, those measures that take a short time are referred to as coping mechanisms, as they may not demand adjustments to ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. Therefore, the coping strategies practiced in Tanzania and those suggested are like:
Receiving remittances from children/ relatives living in urban
Borrowing cash to buy food
Reduce the number of meals per day
Renting land for cash
LIMITATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, ADAPTATION, AND COPING STRATEGIES IN TANZANIA
Lack of mitigation and adaptation technologies
Little awareness and researches on climate change
Lack of information on climate change impacts
Lack of access to early warnings and unreliable of seasonal forecast.
High cost of adaptation
Inadequate farm inputs
Weak institutional coordination and support
Low institutional capacity
Poor extension services
Poor enforcement and implementation of laws and by-laws
Too much bureaucracy
Conflicts between farmers and pastoralists
Satisfied that climate change is the will of God
Reluctant to take changes
Generally, most of disasters in Tanzania are related with the climate change impacts there fore mitigating, adopting and coping with climate change links with disaster risks reduction and management activities. And regarding various climate change related impacts Climate change is indeed real and evident, it is inevitable, and it has to be appropriately and sustainably addressed.
1. UNEP and UNDP 2016-2021 environmental and development strategy
Through a country programme, UNEP (United Nation Environmental program) and UNDP (United Nation Development program) proposed a strategy to counteract climate change issues while improving the Tanzanian economic development. Based on a theory of change where better governance and better placed investment could decrease poverty as well as environmental degradation. In the same way, the goal is to enhance the participation in economic, environmental, and governmental issues of women, youth, and disabled individuals. To anchor sustainable development, UNEP wants to implement sustainable interactions with all institutions such as both private and public partners. In partnership with those institutions as well as the government, UNEP will be able to achieve sustainable development projects. Those projects will mainly focus on environment, natural resources, climate change governance, energy access and disaster risk management.
The forestry sector is leveraged with the agriculture of the Tanzanian developmental economy representing 90% of the country’s energy resources and ½ of his supplies in construction materials. Because of the high dependency on agriculture and the rapid population growth, pressure on the environment and natural resources have largely increased in the last few years. Deforestation, it’s becoming one of Tanzania’s major challenges.
UNEP is taking action to improve institutional and regulatory frameworks for safeguarding protected areas and preserving biodiversity. To fight against deforestation and deteriorating environmental quality, the institution is focusing on many interventions:
mainstreaming environmental concerns into development plans
Facilitating environmental laws and regulations
Scaling up community-based environmental protections initiatives
As well, to protect natural resources and avoid ecosystem degradation, UNEP actively works on:
Improving conservation of forest biodiversity, ecosystems
support efforts to combat poaching and illegal wildlife trade
Scaling up sustainable land management practices
Supporting community based-forest management initiatives
Promoting conservation agriculture
Finally, UNEP is highly supporting and promoting the REDD+ program. This program creates a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, by offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. Developing countries would receive results-based payments for result-based actions. REDD+ goes beyond simply deforestation and forest degradation and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
According to the UNEP, the Tanzanian land faces many challenges because of its fast development expansion and its demographic growth. Those challenges are the following:
unplanned human settlements
encroachment into forest areas
inappropriate farming and livestock management practices
unregulated mining activities
poor inter-sectoral cooperation
weak stakeholder linkages
poorly planned and uncoordinated action
To fight against those challenges, UNEP and UNDP (United nation development program) will take example in the Sustainable land management (SLM) program implemented in other
Countries that have been successful. The lack of financial resources and adequate capacity in Tanzania remains a key barrier to this program. Both institutions will mainly focus on building institutional capacity and strengthening coordination between stakeholders, implementing practical SLM interventions to land degradation in forest, rangelands and arable land. Finally, they will promote watershed (hydraulic pool) management interventions to show environmental challenges to the Tanzanian community.
As a result of climate change manifestation, Tanzania will face a rise in extreme events as droughts, floods, the rise of sea level, dwindling water sources as well as impacts in the agricultural sector, energy sector and health sector. UNDP’s plan proposed support by promoting the implementation of sustainable strategies through high-capacity building initiatives and the establishment of proper institutional, policy and financial frameworks in collaboration with all key stakeholders, including the private sector. At the local level, implementing small scale climate change adaptation projects to create livelihood opportunities particularly in the agricultural sector as population depends on rain-fed agriculture as a source of livelihoods, income, and consumption.
For example, promote and help the IITA (international Institute of Tropical Agriculture) in their work with farmers to get agricultural expertise’s. Debate sessions are organized to discuss essential topics such as “What crop can I grow with this irregular rainfall season?”. The final goal is to help those farmers to have sustainable agriculture.
Moreover, UNDP wants to focus mainly on the implementation of COP21 Paris Agreement outcomes, under the United Nation Framework on climate Change. They will focus on supporting the government in order to create a framework for the implementation of INDC’S (Intended National Determined Contribution) which will be leading to greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
To tackle the development of the fossil industry and transit to sustainable energy, UNDP implemented the SE4ALL (Sustainable energy for all) program to be achieved by 2030 in Tanzania. This program focuses on three targets:
Ensuring universal access to modern energy
Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency
Doubling the share of renewable energy in global energy mix
The institution was able to mobilize significant political support before RIO+20 and continued to provide coordination and technical assistance around those three targets.
Thanks to UNDP, sustainable energy access for all in Tanzania is moving fast. By coordinating the implementation of the SE4ALL initiative, an Action Agenda and an investment prospectus has been created. It brings poorer communities appropriate, reliable, and affordable energy technologies. This can be possible mainly by improving policy and regulatory framework, improving institutional framework and human capacity, strengthening the M&E (Monitoring and evaluation) framework as well as generate relevant data.
Resilience is the ability of the system, community, and society to resist, to accommodate against hazards. Over 70% of all-natural disasters are hydro-meteorological and the major disasters have included droughts, floods, and epidemic diseases. All of them, affecting humans and wildlife.
As an example, let’s take the “El Niño phenomenon” that occurred in Tanzania in 2011. It causes massive floods which wash away crop farms and damage transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. As well as destroying houses making people homeless. It also increased diseases. We’ve seen the impact of an RCP 8.5 scenario; phenomenon’s like “El Niño ” will occur increasingly frequently.
As a response, UNDP’s proposal is to strengthen the institutional framework of meteorological institutions, including the establishment of a 24/7 Emergency center for climatic disaster management. Improve weather and climate forecasting infrastructure throughout the procurement of the installation of highly sophisticated hydro-met technologies to improve collection of the hydro-met data.
Also, they want to improve analysis, interpretation, and customization of data in order to provide relevant information to groups including farmers, urban and rural dwellers, and aviation. Finally, the development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP’s) to improve coordination in dealing with disasters between the relevant institutions.
2. Climate Action Network International implication for Tanzania
Moreover, other than the United Nations institutions, other NGOs stand out for their innovative projects and their response to the global warming threat. It’s the case of Climate Action Network (CAN) International, very active in Tanzania.
Þ Climate Action Network Annual Strategy Session 2020 in Arusha
In February 2020, CAN organized the Annual strategy session about Climate change in Arusha. This event, which brought together several major climate actors, was an opportunity to discuss two major topics: “What does it mean for society/funders to build power in this climate emergency?” and “What are they doing to respond to the crisis and what do they believe is CAN’S role?”.
Through many debates and workshops all these actors agreed on the priority areas where investment is needed in terms of funding, human energy, and collaborative strength. Centering climate impacts and people to ensure governments act with urgency as well as exposing and undermining the fossil fuel industry, are the two priorities CAN and other NGOs should focus on.
Major events are going to take place in the next five years depending on the pandemic situation. These gatherings involving actors from all over the world (government, NGOs, the private and public sector industry) will be an opportunity to put these two issues on the table on a larger scale in order to take urgent action for our planet.
In the meantime, while awaiting those gatherings, CAN already started its fight for the climate by working on diverse projects and implementing solutions for the Tanzanian community. Here is the major one’s:
Water Purification & Biogas Plant (TAHUDE Foundation) is an initiative to build low carbon and resilient communities by providing access to clean drinking water and energy.
Climate-Smart Agriculture (ACT) is a community-led action agricultural initiative, which provides training to farmers on climate smart agriculture techniques such
as water conservation (bases/pots technique), short harvesting period, intercropping and mulching materials.
Climate-Smart Coffee Farming by Solidaridad is also a community-led initiative which provides training to coffee farmers on climate-smart coffee farming practices such as developing pest resistant methods, water harvesting/ conservation, short harvesting cycle crops, nursery practices, intercropping and shade coffee management.
Water for Livestock (Oikos) is part of the ECOBOMA initiative which is a project to build the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable Tanzanian community to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and reduce poverty in rural areas.
Tree Planting & Forest Conservation (Arumeru District Government)
Media Training Bootcamp: a practical skills session to build the capacity and strengthen the member’s ability to be spokespersons and to deliver powerful messages for press conferences and interviews.
Leadership & Diversity and Building a Grassroots-Driven Network Bootcamp: the objective of this session is to build members’ knowledge and understanding of how to link policies with people and navigate power and privilege to facilitate diverse inclusion and create safe, engaging spaces for grassroots leadership and organizing across CAN.
Developing Funding Proposals Bootcamp: the purpose of this session is to provide members with concrete ideas and shared thinking on good and effective fundraising. The bootcamp facilitated discussions on key elements of fundraising,
a good elevator pitch and how to approach funders and keep the communication lines open.
Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty Bootcamp: this session provided members with a background and overview of the Non-proliferation Treaty for Fossil Fuels Initiative. This initiative uses the experience and outcomes of the Non-proliferation Treaty on Nuclear as a basis and is trying to adapt this to dealing with fossil fuels. The session explored a set of high leverage strategies that this initiative could galvanize around such as the phase-out of fossil fuels and shifting narratives on fossil fuels, strengthening local action to stand against fossil fuel expansion, and encourage international cooperation to stop fossil fuel proliferation through a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
After the announcement of all these projects, we can better understand the involvement and dedication of the institution to change the habits of the Tanzanian community to provide them with a more promising future than RCP 8.5. However, there is one last project that particularly caught my attention, and which demonstrates the long-term impact vision that the institution is trying to establish. This CAN project is the climate and livelihood center in Bagamoyo. The purpose of this green village is to link scientists to the communities to provide new initiatives. Many activities are organized going from cultural events to environmental workshops. Everybody is welcome regardless of their work sector (fisherman’s, students, small-scales farmers, etc.). The center provides knowledge through training and teaching, the possibility to implement the improvements directly on the site and most of it, the center tried to provide this networking to have a bigger impact and reach more communities and partnerships.
They organized three workshops in December 2019 to raise awareness and inform the participants on renewable energies (RE) and the necessity of transitioning to clean and affordable energy. 124 participants were representatives of women groups, local government authorities, and civil society organizations.
Because the baseline study was focused on their own villages, people were highly interested. The survey showed that 92% of the households were not capable of paying the highly initial cost of renewable energy. But the community saving groups might present an opportunity for decentralized energy. 42% were unaware of the potential of RE, only solar was common and most of them (91% of the survey) use charcoal and firewood for cooking
Because of deforestation, people have difficulties using firewood (takes three hours to collect) and their only alternative is charcoal. Many of the village’s council stated that they did not include RE into their agenda due to the lack of understanding and support from government and non-governmental stakeholders.
Participants were really curious and interested about identifying achievable and long-term solutions. With the help of CAN in Tanzania, they establish and initiate RE clubs in primary and secondary schools that allow children to be innovative and creative. Finally, those workshops promote awareness about RE. Shumina Rashidi, the councillor of the Bagamoyo District and a businesswoman, for example told the CAN team: “In the workshop I learnt that cooking with gas is very cost effective – especially because I am living in Bagamoyo town, where it is available everywhere. I am going to use gas for cooking – not only for my health, but also to protect the environment. “
The important point is to understand that these people have no idea of what climate change is, why we said that the globe is becoming warmer, and why we should care about fossil fuels. That’s why it’s essential to sensitize and inform them before taking actions or implementing projects where they don’t understand the environment purpose.
During our interview, Adelaide Mkwawa said “you know there is a huge friction between NGOs and the government. If NGOs tell the truth and the government disapproves, they can remove your NGO license”. NGOs have to be very careful and clever not to come into conflict with the lack of investment and impact of the government while at the same time making them understand the importance of acting quickly and strongly.
For Adelaide, who had also worked for the UNAT (United Nation international justice system), NGOs had implemented lots of projects in response to the SDGs. Most of them have being undertaken by the Parliament Group of sustainable development to enter those propositions and projects in the government budget. But at the moment, where those projects and propositions are in the hands of the government then it’s really hard to find their progress because of the lack of information and the lack of knowledge to communicate by the government. Communication between institutions is really poor due to lack of resources and the inordinate amount of time that elapses between the transmission of the first information and its evolution. For Adelaide, this is one of the biggest issues and that’s why projects in Tanzania take so much time. In her opinion, the creation of a communication sector that’s effective will facilitate this collaboration between the government and NGOs.
Investment for Climate change is all about communication and collaboration. Even for the private and public sector. A close collaboration between institutions on their new methods and techniques to afford sustainable development is a key point to move forward. Some institutions in Tanzania have excellent ideas to fight against this global warming while in the meantime ensuring the economic development of the country. This is the case of TWIGA CEMENT INDUSTRY.
4. Combining economic development and environmental responsibility: TWIGA CEMENT example
Tanzania Portland Cement Company Limited (TPCC) also called TWIGA Cement is a cement-manufacturing company. Member of the Heidelberg group and listed in the Dar es Salaam stock exchange, is the largest cement manufacturer and reports a company total asset of 322 billion TSH (141 million US$).
The challenge for TWIGA is colossal. On the one hand it is one of the biggest employers in the region, employing hundreds (more than 300 in 2019) of people. These jobs are quite simply indispensable for people’s survival from a human and community point of view. Moreover, it is one of the main reasons for the development of the region, where their cement has enabled the construction of many buildings and most of the houses. However, on the other hand, it is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases and is at the origin of many environmental challenges, in particular its production: Soil erosion, soil health, topography, deforestation, pollution of waterways, health, and safety of workers and community.
We had the chance to visit it and we realized some important facts during this day. First, there is a military base in the company’s own premises which testify an economic state interest and a voluntary security to the factory. Second, most of the workers pass have also a Chinese translation which testify an economic interest from China.
The largest drivers of climate change are large corporations and industrial factories. Since TWIGA belongs to this category they are holding themselves responsible to reduce their negative impact on the environment. Despite all the prejudices I had on this type of company, I was quite surprised.
TWIGA Cement counters their negative action by giving to nature what they had stolen from her. About ten years ago they founded the Nursery project to tackle their environmental impact. In order to collect these precious stones for the creation of cement, TWIGA has to dig for hundreds of meters, destroying the surrounding nature. When the digging space is exhausted, they fill it with soil and sand and replant some fast-growing tree species on top. These trees allow the soil to be re-fertilized, thus restoring the basic natural conditions. Once the fertilization has been completed, the fast-growing wood is cut for consumption and various new species are then planted permanently. It’s at this point that the nursery project appears.
The goal of the nursery is to mitigate damage being done to the surrounding environment, improve the health and wellbeing of underserved groups in the community, such as school children and prisoners by providing free shade trees. The nursery improves air quality and the environment at large through carbon sequestration. In the nursery they have quite a lot of species going to the Averrhoa bilimbi (culinary interest and the leaves serve as a paste on itches, swelling, rheumatism, mumps, or skin eruption) to the moringa oleifera (Its young pods and leaves are used as vegetables. The seeds are also used to purify water, as a detergent, or as a medicinal plant.) and even mint.
A barren plot of land in close proximity to the cement production has been transformed into a lush haven for biodiverse plant species and crucial pollinator species. Many of the trees grown there have medicinal benefits or are fruit bearing. To achieve their goal TWIGA has undertaken this project and educates the community by engaging with volunteers and hosting students to teach them how to maintain gardens and plant trees. They are also introducing the concept of sustainability to many local youths and giving them the tools to raise their own trees in needed areas. They are spreading the culture of sustainability and changing the mindsets of the young generations.
However, there are still some challenges to achieve such the six volunteers in the nursery compared to the hundreds of people employed in the factory. Despite all the efforts made, we can still understand where the priority is.
TWIGA Cement could be a great example to follow for many drivers around Tanzania and even further. Everybody needs cement, unfortunately in Tanzania, wood is the main construction material and the transition for sustainable tools that avoid deforestation and greenhouse gases are not readily available today. The carbon sequestration provided by those hectares of nursery, permits TWIGA to achieve its goal of developing Dar es Salaam district while at the same time reducing its negative impact.
Investing in R&D (Research and Development) for green energy could be the next step for TWIGA cement to achieve their goal of being a zero-carbon emission company.
Because at the end, compared to developed countries such as European ones or the United States, African countries and especially Tanzania have only small responsibility in the global warming issue. Tanzanian people because of low incomes mostly consume daily needs. Most of them don’t travel out of their countries because plane tickets are too expensive, and their water consummation is ridiculously low compared to a country like Germany or France. When you drive through Tanzania you don’t see any herds with thousands of animals, in other words no intensive farming and all their agriculture is natural, i.e., without the use of pesticides. Still Tanzania and other African countries will be the most affected by climate changes in the next decades.
As I said, Tanzania is a small greenhouse gases emission driver. Nevertheless, if the major drivers of those greenhouse gases which are mainly fossils industries. Take the example of TWIGA Cement and how they invest in R&D for clean energy, Tanzania could become an example of sustainable development for all African countries.
Through my internship at the Art in Tanzania institution, I had the chance to participate in many debates classes whose aim was to learn English while debating on sensitive subjects such as religion, waste management or Covid 19. I was very surprised by the open-mindedness and the stance that Tanzanians can take on such subjects. Unlike our European countries where discussions often turn into a confrontation of two ideals rather than the understanding and acceptance of a difference. Therefore, after more than two months of living together and sharing their traditions, I am convinced that the Tanzanian community has a key role to play in their climate issue. The government and the various institutions that want to work towards a more responsible and sustainable economy can rely on the collective strength and openness to change of its people. Tanzania can become a pioneer in the development of a green and responsible economy. To do so, its community needs to be informed and heard. The government and institutions need to invest heavily in intelligent campaigns to raise awareness of the benefits of the environment and the importance of caring for it. As we have seen with the example of the workshops held in the Bagamoyo Knowledge Centre, the participants are more than interested in green energy as it can improve their daily lives, their economy, and their biodiversity. The Tanzanian community is willing to listen and act for the good of their country, if it will improve their life. The next generations have a major role in this awareness, and it is through the youth that these innovations will be born. Of course, nothing worth doing is easy and such a transition will not happen overnight.
Tanzania is a coastal country in East Africa which shares the Victoria Lake border with Kenya and Uganda. Given that the vast majority of the population’s livelihoods are dependent on the agriculture sector (80 % of the population) which is highly sensitive to climate change, Tanzania is considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts are already taking a significant toll on the livelihoods and wellbeing of Tanzanians, including:
Rising of severe droughts frequency and its associated water scarcity issues, slow down in the food production chain, economics and poverty reductions gains, reduced quantity and quality of the water in Victoria Lake, including an increase in contaminants which impact the purity of the water and have the potential to harm health, reduced surface water flows and aquifer (see diagrams below) that recharge during drought periods, as well as groundwater depletion through aquifer over extraction.
Furthermore, we can anticipate the intrusion of saline into aquifers (diagram) in low-lying coastal areas, as well as on a more global scale, impacts from coastal flooding. Climate projections for Tanzania include increased periods of prolonged drought, more erratic rainfall patterns (leading to extreme flooding) and a rise of sea-levels, all of which may exacerbate the mentioned pressures on water resources in this already water stressed country. If Tanzania’s low capacity for climate resilience is not addressed, this will likely have a profound impact on public health, stifling future development in urban and rural settings alike.
In this section, I’m going to illustrate what transformation we can expect in different sectors in Tanzania such as energy, agriculture, water, and health.
Before going into technical information, it’s important to understand how those sectors will be impacted. In most of the diagrams, there will be two baselines: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration
(Not emission) trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC). They described different climate futures depending on the volume of GHG’s emitted in the years to come. Founded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental program (UNEP), IPCC’s role is to provide objective with scientific information to understand the risk of human induced climate change and drafted recommendations to act in consequence.
IPCC has foreseen many different scenarios such as RCP 1.9, RCP 2.6, RCP 3.4, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 7 and RCP 8.5. In the following analysis of Tanzania climate change future, we are going to focus only on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5.
RCP 2.6 requires that CO2 will start decreasing by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. Methane emissions (CH4) are going half the CH4 level of 2020 and Sulphur dioxide declined to approximately 10% of those of 1980-1990. In simple words we will be able to respect Paris Agreement and likely to keep global temperature warming rise under the 2*C by 2100. We will have to face new environmental conditions, that are still close to the actuals one’s, but our daily life will remain comfortable.
RCP 8.5 as you can imagine is another story. It’s the worst climate change scenario with a very high baseline emissions scenario. Experts see it as the “business as usual” scenario.
RCP 8.5 scenario assumes that by 2100 there will be between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion people. Assuming that the collapse of fertility will occur in the entire world without considering Africa. For example, Nigeria’s population will rise from 175 million nowadays to 1.5 billion by 2100. Almost all the fossil energies will be consumed, and we can expect that southern Europe will be the new Sahara. Most of the people on the planet will be leaving in extreme conditions. A scenario where giving birth in 2100 would be condemning your children to a hopeless life.
As warmer air has a higher capacity to carry moisture in form of water vapor, future climate raises the likelihood of strong rainfall events, towards the extremes. In many
places around the world, the maximum expected amount of rainfall in a 10-year period is projected to increase, which can lead to flooding.
Nowadays, Tanzania is issued to this seasonal temperature and climate variation. Rainfall period starts in December and ends at the beginning of April. Then, the easter season arrives with comfortable temperatures, consequently causing the arrival of millions of tourists.
What would be the projection of this monthly precipitation in RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios?
Compared to historical data, between 2080-2099, Tanzania will face variation around 75mm maximum (January, November) of its precipitation which will reinforce floods in coastal regions and in the Victoria Lake region. In other terms, the rainfall season will be each year more intense, but Tanzania will have time to adapt to those new conditions. New innovations will engender better management in the agricultural and the energy sectors. On the left, monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right, monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099. In the case of RCP 2.6 scenario, the difference in 50-80 years is not considerable.
In the case of RCP 8.5, monthly precipitation will drastically increase leading to a maximum precipitation level difference of around 150mm in January. On the left monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right, monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099. In the RCP 8.5 scenario.
In both cases, precipitation concentration will increase, which will intensify future floods, yet not with the same intensity. Indeed, in the diagram above, RCP 8.5 scenario demonstrates the impact of “business as usual” attitude towards Tanzanian climate. It is clear that if we were to find ourselves in the situation of the diagram on the right, business will not be as usual. Power production will be largely affected. For example, the transportation lines for fuel could be interrupted by local flood for days or even weeks, or the networks distribution could be disturbed by excessive rainfall and flooding. Agriculture will be hit critically with farm crops always swept by floods which will drive Tanzania into a deeper poverty.
Drought: extreme events
Both power demand and production are tied to water availability. Obviously, this is most directly the case in hydropower systems. Although, dry conditions might also come along with higher temperatures, thus heightened cooling needs and an increase in demand for water pumping, particularly in regions of intense agriculture.
On the production side, water is required for cooling the power plants. If there is not enough water, then cooling is restricted, thus production might need to be slowed down. In some places, there are regulations preventing power plants from causing an increase in the temperature of returned water above specific thresholds, which are dangerous for local fish and plants. These thresholds are more quickly reached if stream flows are low during dry conditions. In a few regions, too much moisture can also be an issue as water might need to be removed.
Concerning agriculture, drought can disrupt its demand and production because the exposition of soils to high temperatures and the scarcity of water can result in the infertility of soil.
In the RCP 2.6 scenario, temperature will rise for 2.5 degrees with extreme variation. Normally it will stay around the 1 degree rising prediction. The temperature will still promote comfortable living. Both energy and agricultural sectors will remain possible thanks to technical innovation.
In the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperature will rise from 3 degrees to maximum 6 degrees! It will drastically change Tanzanians habits in terms of energy supply. Disruption of operation and distribution will become a major problem because of the rising demand of growing population and evolving power needs. In the same case, demand for agriculture will rise but production will decrease because of soil infertility. With 80% of the population living on agriculture, feeding Tanzania’s population will be a huge challenge. Moreover, the breeding of goats and cows will face a lack of grasslands and associated difficulties sustaining livestock.
To sum up, in the case of the RCP 2.6 scenario, environmental conditions will increase progressively, leaving time to find innovations and new management methods to keep demand and production at a sustainable level. That also means, that the Tanzanian society will have to take a responsible pathway for its environment by focusing on green energies and avoiding fossils energies.
In the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, environmental conditions will increase drastically without leaving time for the farmers and energy companies to adapt their methods. Both sectors will be submerged by those changes. Agriculture will face long drought periods making soils incapable of growing any crops, and then will follow long term rainfall causing incessant floods where here also, the farmers will not have the time for transition and crops will be drown and washed away. Electricity will face high demand for cooling, hence conditions for living workers in both extreme periods will be inhumane. Finally, supply, production and distribution in flood periods will be difficult because of poor road conditions.
Africa’s Victoria Lake is the largest tropical lake and source of the Nile River. Climate changes will affect Lake Victoria’s levels of evaporation, temperature, rainfall, and solar energy. According to Emily Beverly, assistant professor of sedimentary geology at Baylor University, the Lake Victoria “could have no outlet to the White Nile in at least ten years”. Which means that every major port will be land closed and Kenya could lose access to the lake in a maximum of 400 years. More than 40 million people are living on the Lake Victoria basin and this result will badly affect their economy. Tanzania depends on the lake’s freshwater because it provides 1 million tons of fish annually. Tanzania’s fishing industry will decrease highly, and all northern regions would be directly affected by this shortage.
Even with an increase of the precipitations in Tanzania (monthly precipitation diagram 2080-2099), in the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperatures will be so high that the lake will dry out too quickly for it to fill up.
The diagram shows the drought impact in the Victoria Lake where more than half of the Tanzanian lake area will be affected.
Moreover, with the rise of temperature, the demand for drinkable water will equally rise.
Global warming will cause the ice on Kilimanjaro and Mount Meru to melt irreversibly.
Neither of these sources will be able to provide drinking water to the districts around
Mount Meru (Arumeru, Arusha, Karatu, Monduli, Ngorongoro) and those around the Kilimanjaro (Hai, Moshi rural, Moshi urban, Mwanga, Rombo, Same) who are completely dependent on them, representing more than 3 million people.
Finally, the rise of sea levels will constrain a majority of Zanzibar’s population to immigrate to the mainland.
Most economic sectors will be affected by climate change (agriculture, energy, fishing, etc.) and the impact on those sectors will result in many adverse effects on the human health of the Tanzanian population. With 80% of the population living on local agriculture, most of them won’t be able to feed themself and starvation will be become through years, common. Because of this malnutrition, many will be inclined to face communicable or non-communicable diseases. According to the World Bank data, 54% cause of death in Tanzania were by communicable diseases, maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions.
Malaria is still also a major issue in Tanzania. In 2018, the incidence of Malaria was 124 per 1000 which represents 7.4 million people at risk. The rise of tropical temperature and floods will increase the mosquito’s population and therefore the risks of obtaining yellow fever, malaria, Zika virus, chikungunya and many others.
Finally, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, poverty will increase consequently, and the population won’t be able to face massive floods. 49% of the population living under the 1.90$ per day, with houses on the ground and only a sheet of metal as roof, we can easily imagine the catastrophe.
In conclusion, if Tanzania takes the pathway of green energy which means avoiding both coal and oil, the two major used fossils energies, and if a massive environmental sensibilization campaign is implemented by the government, then Tanzania could likely be faces the RCP 2.6 scenario. As always, the biggest drivers of gas emissions are the public and private sector and there are the ones who have to give the example. Otherwise, the country will face, in the worst-case, the RCP 8.5 scenario. As seen before, these scenarios will be a disaster for a country in development such as Tanzania which faces extreme events and unbearable conditions of life.