Category: Environment & Climate Change

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHAT ARE ITS EFFECT ON OUR PLANET? PART 3

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By Gabriel Andre – Art in Tanzania internship

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA

1. What can be expected

Tanzania is a coastal country in East Africa which shares the Victoria Lake border with Kenya and Uganda. Given that the vast majority of the population’s livelihoods are dependent on the agriculture sector (80 % of the population) which is highly sensitive to climate change, Tanzania is considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts are already taking a significant toll on the livelihoods and wellbeing of Tanzanians, including:

Rising of severe droughts frequency and its associated water scarcity issues, slow down in the food production chain, economics and poverty reductions gains, reduced quantity and quality of the water in Victoria Lake, including an increase in contaminants which impact the purity of the water and have the potential to harm health,  reduced surface water flows and aquifer (see diagrams below) that recharge during drought periods, as well as groundwater depletion through aquifer over extraction.  

Furthermore, we can anticipate the intrusion of saline into aquifers (diagram) in low-lying coastal areas, as well as on a more global scale, impacts from coastal flooding.  Climate projections for Tanzania include increased periods of prolonged drought, more erratic rainfall patterns (leading to extreme flooding) and a rise of sea-levels, all of which may exacerbate the mentioned pressures on water resources in this already water stressed country. If Tanzania’s low capacity for climate resilience is not addressed, this will likely have a profound impact on public health, stifling future development in urban and rural settings alike.

2. Projections from today to 2100

In this section, I’m going to illustrate what transformation we can expect in different sectors in Tanzania such as energy, agriculture, water, and health. 

Before going into technical information, it’s important to understand how those sectors will be impacted. In most of the diagrams, there will be two baselines: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration

(Not emission) trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC). They described different climate futures depending on the volume of GHG’s emitted in the years to come. Founded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental program (UNEP), IPCC’s role is to provide objective with scientific information to understand the risk of human induced climate change and drafted recommendations to act in consequence. 

IPCC has foreseen many different scenarios such as RCP 1.9, RCP 2.6, RCP 3.4, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 7 and RCP 8.5. In the following analysis of Tanzania climate change future, we are going to focus only on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. 

RCP 2.6 requires that CO2 will start decreasing by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. Methane emissions (CH4) are going half the CH4 level of 2020 and Sulphur dioxide declined to approximately 10% of those of 1980-1990. In simple words we will be able to respect Paris Agreement and likely to keep global temperature warming rise under the 2*C by 2100. We will have to face new environmental conditions, that are still close to the actuals one’s, but our daily life will remain comfortable.

RCP 8.5 as you can imagine is another story. It’s the worst climate change scenario with a very high baseline emissions scenario. Experts see it as the “business as usual” scenario.

RCP 8.5 scenario assumes that by 2100 there will be between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion people. Assuming that the collapse of fertility will occur in the entire world without considering Africa. For example, Nigeria’s population will rise from 175 million nowadays to 1.5 billion by 2100. Almost all the fossil energies will be consumed, and we can expect that southern Europe will be the new Sahara. Most of the people on the planet will be leaving in extreme conditions. A scenario where giving birth in 2100 would be condemning your children to a hopeless life.  

Let’s then focus on the impact of those scenarios on Tanzania through those sectors. Most of the following diagrams in this section are being taken from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank group. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tanzania-unitedrepublic/climate-data-projections

Þ Agriculture and Energy sector 

Precipitation: extreme events  

As warmer air has a higher capacity to carry moisture in form of water vapor, future climate raises the likelihood of strong rainfall events, towards the extremes. In many

places around the world, the maximum expected amount of rainfall in a 10-year period is projected to increase, which can lead to flooding. 

Nowadays, Tanzania is issued to this seasonal temperature and climate variation. Rainfall period starts in December and ends at the beginning of April. Then, the easter season arrives with comfortable temperatures, consequently causing the arrival of millions of tourists. 

What would be the projection of this monthly precipitation in RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios?

RCP 2.6

Compared to historical data, between 2080-2099, Tanzania will face variation around 75mm maximum (January, November) of its precipitation which will reinforce floods in coastal regions and in the Victoria Lake region. In other terms, the rainfall season will be each year more intense, but Tanzania will have time to adapt to those new conditions. New innovations will engender better management in the agricultural and the energy sectors. On the left, monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right, monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099. In the case of RCP 2.6 scenario, the difference in 50-80 years is not considerable. 

RCP 8.5

In the case of RCP 8.5, monthly precipitation will drastically increase leading to a maximum precipitation level difference of around 150mm in January. On the left monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right, monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099. In the RCP 8.5 scenario. 

In both cases, precipitation concentration will increase, which will intensify future floods, yet not with the same intensity. Indeed, in the diagram above, RCP 8.5 scenario demonstrates the impact of “business as usual” attitude towards Tanzanian climate. It is clear that if we were to find ourselves in the situation of the diagram on the right, business will not be as usual. Power production will be largely affected. For example, the transportation lines for fuel could be interrupted by local flood for days or even weeks, or the networks distribution could be disturbed by excessive rainfall and flooding. Agriculture will be hit critically with farm crops always swept by floods which will drive Tanzania into a deeper poverty. 

Drought: extreme events 

Both power demand and production are tied to water availability. Obviously, this is most directly the case in hydropower systems. Although, dry conditions might also come along with higher temperatures, thus heightened cooling needs and an increase in demand for water pumping, particularly in regions of intense agriculture. 

On the production side, water is required for cooling the power plants. If there is not enough water, then cooling is restricted, thus production might need to be slowed down. In some places, there are regulations preventing power plants from causing an increase in the temperature of returned water above specific thresholds, which are dangerous for local fish and plants. These thresholds are more quickly reached if stream flows are low during dry conditions. In a few regions, too much moisture can also be an issue as water might need to be removed.

RCP 2.6

Concerning agriculture, drought can disrupt its demand and production because the exposition of soils to high temperatures and the scarcity of water can result in the infertility of soil. 

In the RCP 2.6 scenario, temperature will rise for 2.5 degrees with extreme variation. Normally it will stay around the 1 degree rising prediction. The temperature will still promote comfortable living. Both energy and agricultural sectors will remain possible thanks to technical innovation. 

RCP 8.5

In the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperature will rise from 3 degrees to maximum 6 degrees! It will drastically change Tanzanians habits in terms of energy supply. Disruption of operation and distribution will become a major problem because of the rising demand of growing population and evolving power needs. In the same case, demand for agriculture will rise but production will decrease because of soil infertility. With 80% of the population living on agriculture, feeding Tanzania’s population will be a huge challenge. Moreover, the breeding of goats and cows will face a lack of grasslands and associated difficulties sustaining livestock. 

To sum up, in the case of the RCP 2.6 scenario, environmental conditions will increase progressively, leaving time to find innovations and new management methods to keep demand and production at a sustainable level. That also means, that the Tanzanian society will have to take a responsible pathway for its environment by focusing on green energies and avoiding fossils energies.  

In the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, environmental conditions will increase drastically without leaving time for the farmers and energy companies to adapt their methods. Both sectors will be submerged by those changes. Agriculture will face long drought periods making soils incapable of growing any crops, and then will follow long term rainfall causing incessant floods where here also, the farmers will not have the time for transition and crops will be drown and washed away. Electricity will face high demand for cooling, hence conditions for living workers in both extreme periods will be inhumane. Finally, supply, production and distribution in flood periods will be difficult because of poor road conditions. 

Þ Water sector: Lake Victoria case

Africa’s Victoria Lake is the largest tropical lake and source of the Nile River. Climate changes will affect Lake Victoria’s levels of evaporation, temperature, rainfall, and solar energy. According to Emily Beverly, assistant professor of sedimentary geology at Baylor University, the Lake Victoria “could have no outlet to the White Nile in at least ten years”. Which means that every major port will be land closed and Kenya could lose access to the lake in a maximum of 400 years. More than 40 million people are living on the Lake Victoria basin and this result will badly affect their economy. Tanzania depends on the lake’s freshwater because it provides 1 million tons of fish annually. Tanzania’s fishing industry will decrease highly, and all northern regions would be directly affected by this shortage. 

Even with an increase of the precipitations in Tanzania (monthly precipitation diagram 2080-2099), in the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperatures will be so high that the lake will dry out too quickly for it to fill up. 

The diagram shows the drought impact in the Victoria Lake where more than half of the Tanzanian lake area will be affected. 

Moreover, with the rise of temperature, the demand for drinkable water will equally rise.

Global warming will cause the ice on Kilimanjaro and Mount Meru to melt irreversibly.

Neither of these sources will be able to provide drinking water to the districts around

Mount Meru (Arumeru, Arusha, Karatu, Monduli, Ngorongoro) and those around the Kilimanjaro (Hai, Moshi rural, Moshi urban, Mwanga, Rombo, Same) who are completely dependent on them, representing more than 3 million people. 

Finally, the rise of sea levels will constrain a majority of Zanzibar’s population to immigrate to the mainland. 

Þ Health sector 

Most economic sectors will be affected by climate change (agriculture, energy, fishing, etc.) and the impact on those sectors will result in many adverse effects on the human health of the Tanzanian population. With 80% of the population living on local agriculture, most of them won’t be able to feed themself and starvation will be become through years, common.  Because of this malnutrition, many will be inclined to face communicable or non-communicable diseases. According to the World Bank data, 54% cause of death in Tanzania were by communicable diseases, maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions. 

Malaria is still also a major issue in Tanzania. In 2018, the incidence of Malaria was 124 per 1000 which represents 7.4 million people at risk. The rise of tropical temperature and floods will increase the mosquito’s population and therefore the risks of obtaining yellow fever, malaria, Zika virus, chikungunya and many others. 

Finally, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, poverty will increase consequently, and the population won’t be able to face massive floods. 49% of the population living under the 1.90$ per day, with houses on the ground and only a sheet of metal as roof, we can easily imagine the catastrophe. 

In conclusion, if Tanzania takes the pathway of green energy which means avoiding both coal and oil, the two major used fossils energies, and if a massive environmental sensibilization campaign is implemented by the government, then Tanzania could likely be faces the RCP 2.6 scenario. As always, the biggest drivers of gas emissions are the public and private sector and there are the ones who have to give the example. Otherwise, the country will face, in the worst-case, the RCP 8.5 scenario. As seen before, these scenarios will be a disaster for a country in development such as Tanzania which faces extreme events and unbearable conditions of life. 

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHAT ARE ITS EFFECT ON OUR PLANET? PART 2

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By Gabriel Andre – Art in Tanzania internship

TANZANIA, A DEVELOPING COUNTRY IN THE MIDST OF AN ECOLOGICAL SHIFT  

Economic and demographic development

Source 

Þ General introduction 

Tanzania is lauded as one of the most peaceful and stable countries in Africa. Since its independence, the country has moved to a multi-party democracy that allows a separation of powers. Tanzania, being the mainland, has an Island called Zanzibar.  Tanzanian’s economic development largely depends on agriculture. Since the 1990’s, the country has had strong economic growth and was predicted to be one of the fastest economic growth in the world. Nevertheless, it is one of the poorest economies in Africa in terms of per capita incomes, and the overall growth rate is due to the growth of the tourism sectors (safaris, Zanzibar recreational facilities) and gold mining. Most of the people that I have met here have been a tour guide for at least one or two years.  It is the case for example of Hadija, who started as a day trip tour guide for Art in Tanzania and has now become a team leader in social sector projects. Tourism is the second pillar of the Tanzanian economy as it provides employment to many jobless people. The development of tourism has led to the improvement of the infrastructures of regions with tourist accommodations. Tanzania expects about 750,000 tourists to arrive in the country every year according to the United Nations Development Assistance Plan (UNDAP). 

The main export commodities include gold, tobacco, fish products, coffee, cotton, diamonds, horticulture, and sisal. Tanzania’s main trading partner are China, Switzerland, South Africa, Kenya, and India. 

Agave sisalana, known as Sisal, is a plant native to southern Mexico. It’s a very resistant fiber is widely used for ropers, fabrics, or carpets.

Þ Religions  

The country of Tanzania is mainly composed of two religions: Christianity and Muslim.

Both religions live in perfect harmony thanks to Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere. Each religion is respectful to the other beliefs. The island of Zanzibar is mainly composed of Muslims representing 96% of its population. 

Þ Demographic development 

On October 24th, 2020, Tanzania’s population was estimated at 59 million whereas on July 1st, 2015 it was at 52 million. Due to high birth rates in the country, on March 18th, 2021, the total population approached t0 61,006,138 which represents 0.77 % of the total world population. In 6 years, Tanzania’s population has seen an increase of 8 million people whereas during the same period the French population has an increase of less than 1 million. Around 37% of the Tanzania’s population is urban. 

Also, 44% of the population constitutes of people under the age of 15, 52 % between 15 and 64 and 3.1 % is above 64 years old. Tanzania is built through a variety of cultures and traditions whereas the country is divided into 120 ethnicities, Sukuma being the largest one representing 16% of the total population.  Despite aids and grants from the IMF, Tanzania is still dependent on foreign countries due its serious debt. It has an external debt of about $USD 7.9 billion and the debt servicing constitutes about 40% of the government expenditures. In order to repay this debt, the country is forced to qualify for loans from other countries. Adelaide Mkwawa, ICT and Communications Officer at Climate Action Network Tanzania is preoccupied by Tanzanian debt “A lot of aids are coming from other countries such as Switzerland, USA, China but it’s more to have a position in the country then to help. Tanzanians are really dependent on every domain on foreign aids”.  

One of the main concerns in Tanzania is the eradication of poverty. According to the World Bank data, in 2017, 49.4 % of Tanzania’s population were living under the 1.90$ per day (the price per day in 2011) which is almost half of the population. The absence of resources to conduct surveys engender difficulties for the World Bank to grasp data updates. In this same year, the World Bank announced that 76.8 % of Tanzanians were under the 3.20 $ a day poverty headcount ratio (PPP in 2011) and 91.80 % under the 5.50 $ one’s. As a comparison, France’s 5.50$ poverty headcount ratio in 2017 is under the 0.1%. 

Source 

The development of trade in Tanzania has played a key role in eradicating poverty in the country since the private sector controls the growth of the national economy. Major imports include capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumer goods with trading partners such as the USA, China, Norway, UK, Finland, Kenya and Zambia. Trade has led to the attraction of foreign investors due to its proof of the availability of political stability and natural gas discoveries. On the other hand, Tanzania is becoming more dependent on those countries’ financial investments.  

Þ Environmental politics in Tanzania

Non-Banking financial Institutions and non-governmental organizations play a key role in the deployment of free education to citizens especially to women in the rural areas to make them aware of what is going on in the economy and the environmental issues. The Tanzanian government has established environment sections in all its ministers and a key result of it is the integration of environmental issues into the Medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) budgeting. This money should help NGOs working for the climate to play a major role. Nevertheless, Adelaide Mkwawa has never seen those governments funds when she was at the United National Appeal Tribunal (UNAT) or at the Climate action Network (CAN) where she currently works nowadays. Same conclusion for Hadija, Team leader at Art in Tanzania, non-governmental organization who promotes volunteer and intern projects in the field of climate change, education, social work, medical and health practices, social media, arts and music, sports, and HIV/AIDS awareness. “For my experiences, I’ve never heard if there were any funds from the government to Art in Tanzania which can help on environmental projects. Maybe the government planned to provide funds to NGOs, but the fund didn’t reach Art in Tanzania yet. It’s my hope that if there are some funds for NGOs, then Art in Tanzania will be among those NGOs to be considered”, Hadija said. 

The biggest problem regarding environmental policies is the lack of information and communication. The government doesn’t provide any information about the strategies nor about any concrete actions put in place. Most of the research I’ve done guided me to environmental information provided by other countries or institutions (U.S Agency for international development, United Nations Environment Program, Netherland’s government, etc.) or from the last government environment data updates, which was in 2013. For more recent information, it’s necessary to talk directly with a government employees, but as you can imagine, it’s even harder than to see a cheetah in a safari.  According to Adelaide Mkwawa, even the Parliamentarian Assembly for Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (Parliaments Assembly) has given information and strategies on how to implement the SDG’s in the government budget. That’s where the UNAT’s helps come to a limit.  After this, the government takes responsibility for the project. “That’s why there is a lack of information and monitoring. Really hard to find the progress because the government hides a lot of info,” said Adelaide. 

 

Þ Corruption

The African Union estimates that corruption around Africa represents $50 billions of losses each year. Lots of changes have been made in all African countries to eradicate corruption. Legislation has been drafted and anti-corruption authorities have been formed. However, on the ground, approximately everywhere and especially in Tanzania, nothing seems to have changed. Corruption is a noneconomic factor which creates a gap among the Tanzanians’ people. Since 1968, with the creation of the Anti-corruption commissions in Africa (Bertelsmann foundation 2014), Tanzania has tried to combat corruption. Most of Tanzanian’s presidents ‘ mandates were standing on the fight against corruption. In 1995, President Benjamin Mkapa declared “war” to corruption, and he organized the Presidential commission against corruption to assess the state for corruption and highlight some recommendations. This led to the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption strategy and Action plan (NASCAP) in 1999 and to the implementation of a revised NASCAP from the new president Jakaya Kikwete in 2005. At the end of 2014, a new report was made with a new anti-corruption strategy. All that information proves that, at the end of 2015, corruption had risen compared to 2005 and was less transparent than ever. Despite the government’s efforts, Tanzania continues to suffer badly from rampant corruption at all levels. Good governance is essential for the reduction of poverty and controlling corruption in the country. Tanzania faces both grand and petty corruption due to weak government laws in different agencies. Most of the foreign investors have stated that corruption in areas like taxation, customs service, and procurement, create a difficult environment for them to do business in the country, due to the high demand for bribery. 

Source 

The diagram above shows us the corruption rate level from low (=1) to high (=6). Tanzania is parts of the countries that observe the highest rate of corruption. In a comparison, the USA and France are not even listed in the World Bank dataset because their respectful rate is under 1. Cape Verde and Bhutan are the two countries who faced the highest corruption with a 4.5 rate. 

New president Magafuli, like his predecessors, has made the fight against corruption a point of honor of his mandates.  Nicknamed “the Bulldozer” because of its style of leadership earned himself credibility for its fight against corruption. He rebuilt lost trusts with foreigners’ donors and with his population by firing publics officials that was incompetent and corrupt. In November and December 2016, six senior officials in the Tanzania Revenue Authority were fired and pushed away. 

Unfortunately, president Magafuli was fighting alone in this battle and against top officials, influential leaders and wealthy powerful people.  Despite the efforts and the hope Magafuli was bringing to Tanzanian’s people, corruption is still one of the main problems in Tanzania. As a personal example, I was able to see and experience this drama of corruption through my trip by car between the city of Arusha and the city of Moshi. In only 3 hours, we were stopped no less than 9 times without any reason, and we had to pay between 1000 and 4000 schillings each time. This represents between 50 cents and 2 euros. Sometimes the bill is more expensive, sometimes they let you pass, it’s random. With 91.8 % of the population living with less than 5.5 USD per day and 48.9% under the 1.9USD, corruption is a disaster. 

Unfortunately, President Magafuli passed away on this Wednesday, 17 of March 2021 at the age of 61 years old. For instance, vice-president, Samia Suhulu Hassan was sworn in as a president and became the first East African country’s female president. Because of Magafuli 21 days of mourning, President Hassan didn’t expose yet her strategy to avoid Tanzania corruption. 

Sectors Promoting Economic Development of Tanzania

Þ Agriculture

As the main economic activity of Tanzania, agriculture contributes to 26% of the GDP and employs about 75% of the labor force. Agriculture, being the key sector of the economy, assists in poverty reduction especially in the rural areas where most people cannot afford to buy food nor have any food security. Not only does agriculture provide employment opportunities but also provides 95% of the food to the people. During the 1990s, agriculture was mainly controlled by the government but after the liberalization of the economy, many people engaged freely in this activity. Some areas received enough rainfall throughout the year making it easy for cultivation while other areas are prone to tsetse flies which badly affect the production of crops. 

The lack of access to the banking sector makes it difficult for farmers to obtain loans to carry out their production since only 9% have access to financial services and only 4% are able to obtain loans. Small holder farmers have low education and knowledge resulting in poor quality of crops. This causes the crops to fetch low prices in the markets. Tanzania depends on export of cash crops which increases revenue. Since the 20th century, the main exported commodity is coffee and each year 30 to 40,000 metric tons are being produced whereby 30% is Robusta and 70% is Arabica. But none of this coffee is consumed by Tanzanian people, as they prefer cheaper and low-quality coffee.  About $115 million is generated from coffee exportations. Coffee consumption is at 7% of its total production in the national output (Gupta & Bose, 2019).

According to UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization), only 24% only out of the 44 million hectares of land have been utilized for the cultivation of crops. Moreover, the existence of water resources, favorable climatic conditions and fertile lands have led to a decrease in poverty condition.

Challenges facing the agriculture sector include:

  • High rainfall dependency and low irrigation process
  • Lack of agricultural knowledge and low level of technology such as use of ploughs
  • Lack of financial access to obtain farm inputs, such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides
  • Low quality of agricultural production resulting in crops fetching low market prices
  • Lack of storage facilities and poor infrastructure in the rural areas making it difficult to transport commodities to be processed and sold

To face these challenges, the government created the Tanzania Agriculture Development Bank.  This bank was established in 2015 to ensure the implementation of agricultural policies and strategies guiding the performance of the sector in general. Agriculture is also the first sector badly affected by climate change. Without help and innovations in the next 20 years, Tanzania will probably face a decrease of 80% of its actual production, which will plunge the country into deep poverty. 

Þ Mining industry 

Mining is one of the fastest growing sectors in the Tanzanian economy. In 2013 it contributed to about 3.3% of the country’s GDP, largely changing the economic growth of Tanzania. The country is endowed with various mineral resources such as gold, diamonds, gemstones, nickel, coal, tanzanite, and uranium. Natural gas exploration of about 55 trillion cubic feet has been discovered, helping to supply electricity in the country. UK, India, China, USA, South Africa, Kenya, Netherlands, Oman, Canada, and Germany are the main investors in the Tanzanian mining sector. Like in many countries around the globe, the mining sector demonstrates multiple challenges for climate change such as health security and illegal practices. Here are some examples of the impacts of the Mining Sector in Tanzania: 

  • Silica dust affecting the miners as well as tuberculosis disease
  • Existence of illegal mining in the country creating risk to the workers
  • Previous Minister of Mining and Energy resource was found guilty after conducting frauds deals and supplying gold to some firms
  • Child labor employed in mines

There was a serious case on the 17th of April 2015, where 19 people were killed after the collapse of an illegal mine near the Bulyanhulu Gold mine in the Kahama district. Many children were rescued from the same collapse. Most of the developed countries involved in the Tanzanian mining sector, already know these problems but the economic interest is too high to politically be involved in the reduction of those challenges. 

Þ Financial sector 

Rural areas in Tanzania do not have access to the banking sector because people do not own valuable assets which would support loan extensions. There is also the lack of education on how banks operate. Most of the rural population have a day-to-day life, only using cash and have no use of credit cards. Even people with a reasonable income mainly use cash. Indeed, if you have a flow ,even low, of cash entering your bank account, then institutions know that you are running a business and then lots of fees appear. That’s why most people use cash in their daily lives and apart from tourist’s facilities, credit cards are not accepted. 

Þ Transport sector 

Transport is very important in any economy to facilitate smooth trade. Tanzanian roads are maintained under the management of an agency called TANROADS “Tanzanian Roads” which has been able to improve the national roads. Road safety still remains a major problem due to poor maintenance of vehicles, overloading, flooding, and poor driving. Tanzania is planning to import about 138 Chinese modern buses into Dar es Salaam. This is due to the support provided by the government through the improvement of the marine transports by modernizing ports and increase spending on infrastructure. The port currently collects over TZS 40 billion per month which represents almost 18 million euros.

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHAT ARE ITS EFFECT ON OUR PLANET? PART 1.2 

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By Gabriel Andre – Art in Tanzania internship

Welcome to part 1.2 in our new climate change blog series.

What are the main consequences of climate change and the risks to our survival? 

The first consequence of climate change is obviously the rise in temperature and the harmful consequences of heat on biodiversity. But why do we keep hearing that we must not exceed the “2 degrees more” of the Paris Agreement by 2100?

Þ Temperature rise and disruption of the water cycle

Source

Indeed, the storage capacity of water in the atmosphere varies according to its temperature. As the temperature increases, the storage capacity increases. As the temperature rises, evaporation is prevalent, and the amount of water stored as water vapor increases. As a result, rainfall is more abundant and there is an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (especially in mid-latitudes and humid tropics). Warmer air can also contain more water vapor and therefore intensifies extreme phenomena’s such as cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons. There is no need to recall the human tragedies caused by hurricanes Sandy (2012), Irma (2017) or Hurricane Harvey (2017).

Þ Melting ice zones 

Global warming leads to the melting of ice zones (glaciers, ice caps, ice pack) with different consequences. Melting glaciers impact freshwater reserves because by melting too quickly, they no longer fulfil their role as reservoirs that gradually release freshwater at steady intervals. Freshwater is drinkable and is a vital need for animals and humans on a daily basis. Today, the demand for water exceeds the quantity available, which is already a major geopolitical issue in many dry regions of the world. In addition, the melting of these glaciers releases fresh water which then flows into rivers, seas, and oceans, causing water levels to rise. The melting of the ice sheets, huge areas of ice resting on land whose height can reach several thousand meters, would be devastating if they were to melt entirely.  

On our planet, there are only two ice sheets:

  • The northern part of Greenland, which has existed for 3 million years
  • The southern part of Antarctica, which is the largest, and has exist for 30 million years.  Given the thousands of meters of thickness of the ice sheets, their complete melting would raise the sea level by 7 meters for Greenland, 54 meters for Antarctica, consequently causing the disappearance of many islands (such as the Maldives) and the relocation of a large part of the coastal population.

Þ Our forests are dying’s

As we have seen with the carbon cycle, forests today are a very important for sequestering carbon. As living matter, flora is composed of carbon and thanks to photosynthesis, it absorbs atmospheric CO₂ to transform it into oxygen. Conversely, when the forest dies or in the event of deforestation, the decomposition of plants leads to the emission of CO₂. The same is true when fires ravage forests: combustion releases into the atmosphere all the CO₂ that was then stored and stabilized. 

With climate change, we are witnessing: 

  1. a warming of the air and soil temperature, destabilizing ecosystems, and biodiversity, 
  2. periods of drought and flooding that can deplete soils and kill the biosphere,   
  3. a significant increase in fire outbreaks and intensity. 

These three phenomena’s, which are consequences of climate change, lead to the decline of plants. Those that survive will have a poorer capacity to absorb CO₂ and those that die will decompose releasing CO₂. Thus, the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere increases, fueling global warming which in turn feeds the three causes listed above. Between the Australian forests going up in smoke in the summer of 2019, and President Bolsonaro’s efforts to deforest the Amazon as quickly as possible, we are not talking about a hypothetical situation. The latter said, in opposition to pressure from European countries, to act to slow the fires in the Amazon “Brazil owes no debt to the planet in terms of environmental preservation”, he said during a conference in Santiago Chile on May 23rd of 2019. 

Þ The two climate time bombs 

Thawing permafrost

Permafrost refers to ground that is permanently frozen, i.e., at a temperature that has never been above 0 for at least two years. Permafrost is found on about 20% of the planet’s surface, notably in Greenland, Alaska, Canada and Russia. It is even found in France, in the Alps.

The huge problem with permafrost is that it contains elements that have been locked in the ice for thousands of years. To take an image, permafrost is like a huge freezer. If you leave the freezer door open, your pizza thaws, your ice cream melts and microbes feed on these organic elements. Similarly, as the permafrost melts, it releases organic matter which, when subjected to the activity of microbes, produces CO₂ in the presence of oxygen or methane in an oxygen-free environment. These GHGs would then enter the atmosphere and accelerate global warming. 

The potential for releasing GHGs from permafrost is colossal: we are talking about 1500 Gt, i.e., twice the amount of GHGs already present in the atmosphere. This would triple the concentration! Just imagine the additional greenhouse effect that would be generated. In this sense, the melting of a large part of the permafrost constitutes one of the two “climate bombs” from which it would probably be impossible to recover.  Another important consequence is that permafrost also contains diseases that have been dormant for hundreds or thousands of years. If the permafrost melts, it could release them and create major health crises. 

For example, in 2016, an Anthrax outbreak killed several humans and over 2,300 reindeer in Siberia. The disease had disappeared for more than 75 years in the region.

It reappeared with the melting of permafrost, which kept the corpse of reindeer that had died of the disease (and thus its deadly bacteria) frozen. Anthrax can be treated with the antibiotics; however, this would not necessarily be the case for all the other viruses that we do not know or do not know how to treat. The risk of epidemics or outbreaks of disease is very high. The risk of epidemics or pandemics much worse the Covid 19 is also very real consequence of climate change.

Methane Hydrate 

Another potential ‘climate bomb’ is methane hydrate. These are methane molecules trapped in ice. They are found in large quantities:

  • Under permafrost
  • At the bottom of the oceans, in ocean sediments.

For the moment, this methane is stored in these reservoirs in a stable manner. It’s difficult to estimate the exact quantities, but we are talking about 10,000 Gt, which is 7 times more than all the GHGs contained in the permafrost, and therefore 21 times more than all the GHGs currently present in the atmosphere!

Unfortunately, if current warming exceeds the famous 2-degree mark, these molecules could become unstable. As the permafrost melts or the oceans warm up, methane hydrate would come into contact with higher temperatures. The unstable probability of these molecules becomes significant with a 2 degree rise in temperature. In this case, the molecules can dissociate, and the methane can escape directly into the atmosphere. Given the titanic volume of methane we are talking about, it is easy to understand the devastating consequences for global warming and life on Earth.

There are many other devastating effects caused by global warming, such as the acidification of our oceans, possibly causing the disappearance of its aquatic fauna and flora; modified ocean currents, reducing the capture of CO2; or the Albedo effect, which is the mechanism of absorption and reflection of light energy that will be less and less effective because of the ice melting.  We therefore understand that it is imperative to act quickly for our survival and to avoid scenarios such as the melting of the permafrost or islands like the Maldives which is being buried by the rising waters. As climate scientist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Jean Jouzel says, “Global warming, as it would be if nothing is done, is another world.” It is a world where, according to the UN, there will be at least 150 million climate refugees. It is a world where southern Europe would resemble to Sahara with temperatures approaching 50 degrees in the summer in France. It is a world where by 2070, 1 billion people will be living in areas where almost every day of the year, outdoor conditions will be lethal.  

But if a country like France would be like the Sahara in the summer, what can a country like Tanzania, which already experiences temperatures of over 40 degrees from November to March, expect? What would be the impact of global warming on a population where more than 80% of the people live only on agriculture and are totally dependent on the climate?

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHAT ARE ITS EFFECT ON OUR PLANET?

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PART 1.1 

By Gabriel Andre – Art in Tanzania internship

Welcome to our new four-part blog. In a series of blogs, I will be discussing the effects of climate change on our planet and the consequences it will have if we do not do anything about climate change.

Climate change 

Before discussing the specific case of Tanzania, it is important to understand the definition of climate change and the consequences of its impact on our planet. Firstly, it’s critical to understand the difference between climate and weather. Weather is an instantaneous and local situation of observable things such as, temperature, precipitation, wind, and so on. Climate, on the other hand, is a statistical description based on the averages and variability of the same variables (temperature, wind, etc.) over long periods of time and on a global scale. For example, the difference between weather and climate would be the comparison between a student’s grade on an exam versus his or her yearly average. 

In this report, I will focus on the effects of climate change on our environment. Since the beginning of time, the climate has changed naturally with the ice ages. For 11,000 years now, our planet has been in an interglacial era (average temperature has similarly been constant over many years, in summer the snow melts and the ice surface slowly shrink around the globe), i.e., our planet is warming at its own pace. However, climate change is different, our planet is warming much too fast. Previously, losing 5 degrees would take thousands of years, nowadays, we have already gained 1 degree in less than a century!  Indeed, our greenhouse effect is completely out of control. The concentration of “greenhouse gases” (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and water vapor (H2O), etc.) in the atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate in recent years. The higher the level of CO2, the higher the temperature. For simplicity’s sakes, we will give for the greenhouse’s gases the abbreviation GHG’s. This diagram shows the natural evolution of the amount of CO2 during the ice ages and interglacial.  

Source

The exponential increase in GHGs over the last century is therefore leading to a completely new climate disturbance that is causing global warming to become more and more alarming and in need to be controlled. 

But what has caused climate change? 

From the diagram above, it is clear that the human race has a large share of the responsibility for this phenomenon. Before the 1850s, CO2 in the atmosphere played its natural role as a greenhouse gas at a relatively stable rate. Since then, human activities have contributed greatly to its increase, particularly through economic growth as standard of livings have increased drastically. As wealth rises, humans develop continuous need to consume, thus increasing their GHG’s impact. This phenomenon primarily started in Europe, and then progressively spread in all the industrialized countries. Population growth has actively participated in climate change as we have gone from 1.2 billion people to 7.7 billion between 1850 and 2019. 

Parallel with these two phenomena, several industrial revolutions (steam, electricity, nuclear power, etc.) were born, transforming more and more natural resources into energy or materials. Population growth, coupled with growth in GDP per capita, have led to an upheaval in energy consumption on our planet, and now 80% of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels or hydrocarbons (oil, gas, coal). Fossil fuels constitute a stock that was formed over hundreds of millions of years by the slow decomposition of the remains of living organisms. However, these fossil resources are exploited by humans during which a very large quantity of carbon that was normally buried underground for millions of years is suddenly released into the atmosphere in the form of CO₂. Changes in land use also significantly impact the balance of natural carbon stocks: deforestation, agriculture, the draining of swamps, and of peat bogs for example. The carbon cycle is therefore strongly impacted by human activities and can no longer regulate itself normally. The Earth is no longer able to regulate this unnatural flow through its physical and biological mechanisms. Unfortunately, the situation is only getting worse as human activity continuously disrupts the carbon cycle, but it is becoming more and more consequential each year.

Source  

This diagram shows that we previously needed 130 years to emit 1000Gt (gigatons) of CO2 equivalent and nowadays we only need 30 years to emit the same amount again. At this rate, we will only need 20 years to produce another 1000 Gt.

COVID-19 Delta Variant

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By Gwamaka Mwakyusa – Art in Tanzania internship

Delta variant, a strain of Covid-19 that wreaked havoc during India’s second wave, has been identified in at least 85 countries. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the delta covid variant is the most transmissible of all the variants identified so far. Acknowledging the contagious nature of the delta Covid-19 variant that was first identified in India, the WHO on June 25 urged vaccinated people to continue wearing masks.

The delta variant, or B.1.617.2, which was first identified in India in October 2020, has now become the dominant strain in the UK, currently accounting for more than 90% of coronavirus cases there. Meanwhile, in the US, the delta variant accounts for more than a third of new cases, according to Financial Times analysis. The former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told ‘CBS News’ Face the Nation’ that the United States is likely to witness “very dense outbreaks” due to the delta variant.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that delta accounted for 20.6% of all Covid-19 cases between June 5 and June 19.

This surge has led Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to the White House, to label the variant as the “greatest threat” to the country’s attempt to eradicate Covid-19.

Both the UK and US have high vaccination rates, and it remains to be seen whether their populations are protected against this Covid strain. But in much of the rest of the world, where Covid-19 vaccines have not been administered at the same level, the concerns are even greater.

Covid delta variant on WHO’s radar

On June 25, the World Health Organization’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove in a press conference said that the delta variant is a dangerous virus. “It is more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which was extremely transmissible across Europe, across any country that it entered. The Delta variant is even more transmissible,” she explained during the conference.

Thus far, there are four “variants of concern” flagged by the WHO and seven “variants of interest.” Despite the strain being identified last year, the delta variant was tagged as a variant of concern only on May 11. This is because the WHO uses three parameters—increased transmissibility, more virulence, and decreased effectiveness of public health measures—to determine its seriousness.

The delay is also because there wasn’t enough genome sequencing data coming from India during its brutal second wave. Now, data from the Public Health England (PHE), the UK government’s health executive arm, have given scientists and public health experts around the world some ability to make sense of this Covid-19 variant.

What is the delta variant?

When Covid-19 infections broke out in Wuhan, China, that first strain was a “wild type” virus. This was the strain used by scientists across the world to develop testing kits, treatment plans, and even Covid vaccines.

It is in the nature of viruses to mutate, and it did. But not all mutations are serious, and usually do not require countries to reimagine their public health measures.

The variants of concern—Alpha (first identified in the UK), Beta (South Africa), Gamma (Brazil), and Delta—are different from all other countless variants for this very reason.

The delta variant has certain significant mutations in the spike protein of the virus—the pointy elements that give it the shape of a crown (which is why it’s called the coronavirus). These spikes are like hooks that have to find the receptors in a human cell to link with. Studies have shown that these spikes hook onto receptors called ACE-2. Once these spike proteins can unlock the cells, the infection spreads by replicating the genetic code of the virus.

Some key mutations in the delta variant—such as the E484Q, L452R, and P614R—make it easier for the spikes in the virus to attach to ACE-2 receptors. This means it can infect and replicate faster, and even evade the body’s natural disease-fighting immunity more efficiently.

The spike protein mutations make the delta variant the “fastest and fittest” variant yet, according to the WHO. The disease caused by this variant might also exhibit different symptoms than other viral mutations. Those infected with the delta variant develop symptoms such as headaches, sore throat, and a runny nose, replacing cough and loss of taste or smell like the most common symptoms.

Is the delta variant more transmissible?

“Most studies indicate delta is 50-60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant,” says Dr. Bhramar Mukherjee, associate director for quantitative data sciences at the University of Michigan Rogel Cancer Center. “The Alpha variant itself was nearly 50-60% more transmissible than the original strain.”

This, according to Mukherjee, implies that if the reproduction number for the original strain was around 2.4-2.6, the one for Alpha is 3.6-4.2, and for delta, it is 5.6-6.7. In layman terms, if a person infected with the original strain could infect nearly two people, a person with the Alpha variant could infect four people. With delta, one person could infect nearly seven other people. It’s important to remember that these are averages, not absolute numbers; one delta carrier might infect zero people, or 25.

Its higher reproduction number is likely why entire families in crowded Indian cities like Delhi and Mumbai were infected together. It would also explain the tsunami-like surge of cases in the country in April and May.

The other consequence of a higher reproduction number (denoted as R in epidemiological data) in an epidemic is that it increases the threshold for herd immunity. That is, more people will need to have the antibodies—either through infection or vaccination—to be protected as a community against the delta variant. “With an R of 2.5, the threshold for herd immunity is 60%, but with an R of 6, it is 83%,” explains Mukherjee.

Do vaccines work against the delta variant?

According to the CDC, studies show that the currently authorized vaccines which include Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson&Johnson or Janssen work on the circulating variants.

Dr. Gautam Menon, professor at the departments of physics and biology at Ashoka University in India said, “It is reasonably certain that the delta variant also exhibits some immune escape, although estimates vary as to the extent.” For instance, single doses of Covid-19 vaccines, according to data from the UK, are only 33% efficacious against the disease.

But there is hope that those who are fully vaccinated are reasonably protected against serious disease. According to data from PHE, Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine is 96% effective, and the AstraZeneca vaccine 92% effective against hospitalizations after two doses. These, PHE says, are comparable to efficacy against the Alpha variant.

This also means that getting a large part of the population fully vaccinated is crucial for countries where the delta variant is prevalent. For countries like the US, where nearly half the population is fully vaccinated, scientists suspect a varied impact of the delta variant. “I would expect some breakthrough infections and transmission happening even in highly vaccinated areas in the US, but would not expect a spike in hospitalizations and deaths,” Mukherjee says.

“We cannot be complacent with a large percentage only partially vaccinated, dropping masks and Covid-appropriate behaviors,” she adds. “We need full vaccination for a large fraction to fight the delta variant.” She also expects that in pockets of the US with lower vaccine coverage, cases of delta variant could rise.

Experts from WHO reiterated that the delta variant is spreading rapidly among unvaccinated populations. However, the health agency quickly noted that “vaccines are effective at preventing severe disease and death, including against the delta variants.

Can masks keep the delta variant in check?

Public health experts are investigating whether booster shots of vaccines will be needed to protect the population against the new variant.

Hence, the WHO is once again highlighting the need to wear masks. “Vaccine alone won’t stop community transmission,” said Mariangela Simao, the WHO’s assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, during a briefing at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva. “People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, [practice] hand hygiene, [maintain] physical distance, avoid crowding,” she said,

Although Covid cases in the US have been steadily declining as vaccination rates are going up, it might be reaching an impasse. Joe Biden had set a target of immunizing 70% of adult Americans by July 4, but the country will fall short, reaching 67% of all eligible adults. Some 20% Americans say they don’t want to get the vaccine.

What is the delta plus variant?

The delta variant has developed a new mutation of a type that was first found in the Beta variant. The new variant—which is being labeled delta plus, though not officially by the WHO yet—additionally has the K417N mutation in its spike protein, which is associated with increased immunity escape.

Shahid Jameel, a top virologist in India, has said that delta plus could also render cocktail antibody treatments—like the one given to former US president Donald Trump—ineffective in fighting the disease. This variant could also potentially lead to vaccines being less effective. India has officially flagged delta plus a “variant of concern,” though after a great deal of indecision.

Menon says the delta plus variant is not a cause for worry yet but would be “if it began to replace the existing variants.” “Currently, there is no evidence that this is the case,” he says, “so there is no cause for immediate worry, but this may change, and we should be watchful for this.”

Mukherjee warns that India, where 40% of the population is below the age of 17 and not eligible for vaccines, needs to adhere to strong public health interventions to control the coronavirus pandemic. Besides scaling up vaccinations, she suggests better studies around the variants, an area where India has been particularly slow. “We need to study properties of these variants: what the clinical manifestations are, whether our diagnostic tests work well to detect them, whether treatments work well.”

The delta plus variant has now been detected in at least nine countries, including the UK, US, China, and Japan.

Bagamoyo Port

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By Alessandro Deligios – Art in Tanzania internship

In recent years China has been using their economic power to take more influence in the geopolitical arena. In accordance with the future model of geo-economic competition, China firstly, seems try to and become the leader State in Asia. Second, they are taking more power in many areas of the world. One of the strategies to extend their influence is by the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). This strategy focuses on financing projects in different areas of the world. China is able to deeply link the economy of various countries to theirs and are creating a global economic network that have Chinese economic and financial system as reference – the so-called Beijing consensus.

In particular China is focusing on East Africa and in this region Tanzania-China relationship is a key for Beijing to get a strategic economic position. In 2013 the former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete signed an agreement allowing China to invest in the financing of Bagamoyo port project, around which it should have place a special economic zone. China is expected to have special conditions such as water and energy provisions and security, as well as Tanzania wouldn’t have financing from another competitor port. But in January 2016 the project has been annulled by the President John Magufuli because the agreement for him was like selling Tanzania to Chinese investors.

In climate discussion we know that African countries are the most affected by the problem brought by climate changes, especially by the global warming. The continent probably will be exposed to longer periods of drought and water provision will be always more difficult. In regard to climate change, it is also known that China is one of the major countries that release the highest levels of greenhouse gases. Despite the attempts of the Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and started in 2005, and the Paris Agreement in 2016, emissions have not yet been limited in a satisfactory way. Developed countries have the responsibility to help the development in ecological transitions and the GEF (Global Environment Facility), a program managed by the UN and the Word Bank that give financing to developing countries to help in getting positive results related to four areas: climate changes, desertification, international water pollution, and biodiversity. Good results are got in third and fourth areas, but not in the first two.

At the start of April 2021, the First Minister Geoffrey Mwambe said that Tanzania would be ready for a new agreement about Bagamoyo port project if terms will be changed: in this Tanzania-China relations can be central for the ecological transition of all of Africa. Tanzania could advance conditions for the project according to the UN 2030 Agenda of sustainability goals, cooperating with others African countries for doing the same with others Chinese investments in Africa, when possible. With high chance China is interested in extending their economic influence in Africa to get more global diplomatic weight to be disposed to accept conditions of sustainability for her projects. It could be one of the few ways for China to do that – but not the only, other countries that would like investing in Africa – massively reduce their emissions. This will be more powerful based on how many countries will collaborate. It should be a priority, as it is important for fast growing economies to develop sustainably and must pressure developed countries, especially on China as big global players are trying to extend their own powers.

Sources:

– (About climate issue and international relations)

J. Grieco, G. J. Ikenberry, M. Mastanduno, Introduzione alle relazioni internazionali, UTET, 2017

– (About Bagamoyo port project)

D, Ayemba, Bagamoyo port project timeline and all you need to know, 15 April 2021, on Construction Review Online, https://constructionreviewonline.com/project-timelines/bagamoyo-port-project-timeline-and-all-you-need-to-know/.

P. Mittal, Tanzanian Bagamoyo Port Project Story, 16 September 2020, on Belt and Road News, https://www.beltandroad.news/2020/09/16/tanzanian-bagamoyo-port-project-story/.

A. D’Amaro, Un ponte tra Cina e Africa: il porto di Bagamoyo, Tanzania, 8 September 2020, on Lo Spiegone, https://lospiegone.com/2020/09/08/un-ponte-tra-cina-e-africa-il-porto-di-bagamoyo-tanzania/ .

The common issues for clean drinking water availability in the Eastern Africa

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By Ekaterina Kilima – Art in Tanzania internship

The shortage of freshwater resources is considered a global problem which affects many parts of the world, including the Eastern African countries. It is often wrongly believed that, because the majority of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, the availability of clean drinking water for humans is abundant. In reality, only 3% of the global water is considered freshwater suitable for drinking (WWF). Therefore, there is a high need for a well-balanced management of the available water resources.

One of the main issues for high water demand in the Eastern Africa is the ongoing population growth and urbanization, which in fact increases the standards of living and requires more water per capita. For example, urban population in Tanzania has increased by 7.2 million people between 2005 and 2015 but the water sector bodies fail to respond adequately to these changes (GIZ 2018). It may sound like a paradox that, while the Eastern African states hold the largest amount of on ground water reservoirs on the continent, with Lake Victoria being the second largest freshwater lake in the world, at least half of the population is vulnerable to the water scarcity problem. Nonetheless, there are several socio-economic and socio-political causes which enhance the problem of drinking water availability.

Lake Victoria

One of these causes is an increasing water demand in agriculture which receives water for irrigation from the nearby freshwater resources such as rivers and lakes. Some amount of freshwater from the wetlands is being lost in the process because of inefficient irrigation methods. Due to the increasing population, the conflict between the water needs of citizens and the water needs of farming is going to become more explicit. Moreover, surface water reserves often get polluted because of the closely located industrial activities, for example oil extraction or transportation. Water contamination can also happen due to nutrient and wastewater transportation from urban and rural areas which is closely connected to poor sanitation practices. After getting polluted, this water cannot be used in households unless using multi-stage water filters.

Perhaps, one of the most complex causes for freshwater scarcity for the Eastern Africa is the trans-boundary ownership of the water sources as well as their weak management. Most countries in the Eastern Africa must share water resources with each other which often leads to uneven distribution of the fresh water (IJWRD 2016). Therefore, the problem is not in the lack of water reservoirs but in the unfair distribution and poor management. The inaccuracy of the water management involves inadequate implementation of the environmental law, corruption of interests among authorities but also lack of problem-specific knowledge and funds.

There is no universal list of solutions that would help all the countries in the Eastern Africa. The perfect mix of solutions for each country would depend on the criteria such as population, climate, level of corruption, economic and political stability, and others. However, there are some suggestions that are critical for each country. One, it is important to support local farmers in their transition to more efficient irrigation practices which would allow more water to be available for drinking and household needs. Second, governments should increase the global awareness on the positive changes in the region to attract more foreign investments. Governments should work closely with international organizations and NGOs to develop more sustainable projects to provide equitable access to clean drinking water. Third, it is critical to legally protect African wetlands from human-led contamination and avoid any disturbance of the ecosystem.

The Economic Consequences of Climate Change in Tanzania

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Romaisa Hussain – Art in Tanzania Internship

Keywords: sustainability, climate change, environment, economic growth

Climate change has emerged as a potentially existential threat all across the globe that poses a serious risk to the survival of mankind and sustainable development. Over the last few decades, the world has witnessed changes in weather patterns as a result of global warming and human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Based on a numerous lines of evidence, it is now more certain than ever that climate change is a threat multiplier that can amplify the effects of existing dangers. These threats include human security, scarcity of natural resources, environmental degradation, and poor economic growth.

The United Nations General Assembly set up the 17 Sustainable Development Goals in 2015 which serve as a blueprint for a sustainable future to be achieved by 2030. The 13th Sustainable Development Goal of the United Nations talks about Climate Action. The goal discusses the critical impact of climate change and encourages developing countries to move towards low-carbon emission in the environment. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) is a separate organisation working within the UN that deals with climate change and other environmental issues. The UN aims to adapt to low carbon development especially in the vulnerable regions that contribute towards climate action and sustainable natural resource management through collective action. Most of the states in the world are affected by climate change with East Africa being one of the most affected regions.

Tanzania is suffering the brunt of the consequences of climate change in East Africa. The agricultural-based economy of Tanzania has become vulnerable to the extreme climatic conditions. The majority of the population is located in the rural areas which heavily relies on agriculture and farming that is threatened by rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme rainfalls. The country is home to the world’s largest river system, the River Tanzanian. Despite immense water resources, Tanzania struggles with a shortage of water both spatially and temporally, which is worsened by the climate on its nine main river basins. In the recent years, there has been a severe decline in the water level in Lake Tanganyika, Lake Victoria, and Lake Jipe, as well as a decrease in the water level of about 7 kilometers in Lake Rukwa during the last fifty years. These are connected with climate change and are endangering towards socio-economic activities. The effect also puts the country’s hydropower system at risk. Furthermore, diseases such as diarrhea and malaria remain one of the prime causes of casualties in the country especially in the urban settlements consisting of poor infrastructure prone to flooding and increased temperatures. 

Tanzania’s economy relies on its natural and environmental resources where a good number of people depend on fisheries for their income which are at risk from rising sea waters and freshwater temperatures. Tourism is another aspect that has the potential to boost the economy of Tanzania as the country has a tropical climate and is home to wildlife, forests, beaches, mountains, rivers, lakes, and minerals. The attractions are found in abundance in national and marine parks, historical and cultural sites, and recreational sites. Currently, tourism generates 17.5 per cent of GDP and 25 per cent of export revenues, making it an important economic sector. Due the unpredictability of climate it is endangering the ecosystem services on which tourism relies. For example, the Serengeti National Park has been famous tourism spot for the wildlife migration for decades, contributing significantly to Tanzania’s economy and serves as a key source of employment. There is a growing fear that the climate has shifted dramatically, potentially affecting wildlife tourism. 

Threats to the sustainability of the natural resources and environmental degradation remain an issue in Tanzania such as the untimely harvesting and usage of natural resources, unsupervised cultivation process, and trespassing on water sources. Collectively, these can seriously affect the sustainable development goals of a country. Due to the unsustainable consumption of resources, there can be problems in the production of sources that may affect livelihoods. In addition to that, they can lead to the deficiency of food which could eventually lead to poverty. An increase in the population and high reliance on agriculture becomes rather burdensome on the environment and its natural resources which contribute negatively to climate change and water-deficient regions. 

One of the leading contributing factors to the environmental degradation is the unsustainable management of land and watershed. Many challenges are still needed to be tackled to reduce this issue including unexpected growth of human settlements, wildlife hunting, illegal farming and livestock, uncontrollable bushfires, weak inter-sectoral association, and stakeholder linkages. This may lead towards the social and economic development of the country as well as reduce poverty. The Tanzanian Government has marked the water-oriented issues as a major factor that has affected the environment. This has led to the implementation of national policies and necessary plans and strategies needed to tackle it. The visibility of climatic changes in Tanzania is increased by 60% which are seen in the form of a decrease in water sources, land degradation and the reduction in agricultural land. The Government also tends to focus on carbon emission with the protection of ecosystems and biodiversity, the saving of wildlife to abolish the hunting system as a means of income, reducing vehicle usage and improving urban planning in the country to promote urbanization. It also placed environmental sections under the sector ministries to ensure and monitor the environmental issues as well as raising awareness amongst the community. The Government also needs to guarantee that efforts are being made in terms of the development of the environment and climate change in national as well as subnational plans. 

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is one among many partners of the Government of Tanzania that has aided in the development of the environment and contributed to measures regarding natural resources and climate change issues. The UNDP encourages the Government and respective communities in terms of sustaining the environment and contributing to the reversal of environmental degradation. As long as the correct policies are implemented, the chances for preserving the ecosystems in terms of food, energy, wood i.e., timber, clean water, consistent climate etc. are possible. Over the past few years, Tanzania has recently experienced high growth rates of about 7.4%.

The impact of climate change has had a huge effect on the incomes of the people in Tanzania. It has had a severe impact on the economy, agriculture, natural resources, and livelihoods of people which exposes the vulnerable part of the country. It is, to say the least, that the Government of Tanzania is to be respected for the progress it has made regarding the development and exercising of policies and strategies to prevent degradation and the protection of the environment. The Government tends to cater to the environmental needs of the country and maintain its natural resources as a means of saving economic and social development. This would mean effectively establishing immediate measures to improve the damages caused. The Government also needs to guarantee that efforts are being made in terms of the development of the environment and climate change in national as well as subnational plans.

References

Kijazi, A. L. (2019). The Contribution of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS APA) in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process for Tanzania. doi:10.4236/acs.2019.94040

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark. (n.d.). Current and future challenges and opportunities in Tanzania. Retrieved from https://um.dk/en/danida-en/strategies%20and%20priorities/country-policies/tanzania/current-and-future-challenges-and-opportunities-in-tanzania/

Ordu, E. I. (2021, April 7). Climate adaptation and the great reset for Africa. Retrieved from Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2021/04/07/climate-adaptation-and-the-great-reset-for-africa/

UNDP. (2016-2021). ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESILIENCE PILLAR, STRATEGY PAPER.

UNDP Annual Report 2020. (2020). Goal 13 CLIMATE ACTION. Retrieved from UNDP Organization: https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals#climate-action

United Nations. (n.d.). Department of Economic and Social Affairs Sustainable Development. Retrieved from Sustainable Deevelopment Goals: https://sdgs.un.org/goals

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA. (2007). NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMME OF ACTION (NAPA). Division of Environment.

USAID From the American People. (2020). Tanzania. Retrieved from climate links: https://www.climatelinks.org/countries/tanzania

Relations between Tanzania and China could be central for future African ecological transition

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By Alessandro Deligios – Art in Tanzania internship


In these last year’s China is exploiting her economic power to take more influence in geopolitical arena. According with the future model of geo-economic competition, China firstly seems try to become the leader State in Asia, secondly is taking more power in many areas of the word. One of the strategies to extend her influence is the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), with which, through financing project in different word areas, China is able to deeply link the economy of various countries to her one and so create a global economic network that have Chinese economic and financial system as reference – the so-called Beijing consensus.
In particular China is focusing on East Africa and in this region Tanzania-China relationship is a key for Beijing to get a strategic economic position: in 2013 the Tanzanian ex-President Jakaya Kikwete signed an agreement for allow China to invest in the financing of Bagamoyo port project, around which it should have place a special economic zone, that expected China to have especial condition for example for water and energy provisions and the security that Tanzania wouldn’t have financing another competitor port. But in January 2016 the project has been annulled by the President John Magufuli because the agreement for him was like sell Tanzania to Chinese investors.


In climate discussion we know that African countries are the most affected by the problem brought by climate changes, especially by the global warming: the continent probably will be exposed to longer periods of drought and water provision will be always more difficult. About this we also know that China is one of the countries which release the highest levels of greenhouse gases. Despite the attempts of Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and started in 2005, and of Paris Agreement in 2016, emissions have not yet been limited in satisfactorily way. Developed countries have the responsibility to help the development in ecological transition and the GEF (Global Environment Facility) is a program managed by the UN and the Word Bank that give financing to the developing countries for they can get positive results related to four areas: climate changes, desertification, international water pollution and biodiversity. Good results are got in third and fourth areas, buty not in the first two.


At the start of April 2021, the First Minister Geoffrey Mwambe said that Tanzania would be ready for a new agreement about Bagamoyo port project if terms will be changed: in this Tanzania-China relations can be central for the ecological transition of all the Africa. Tanzania could advance conditions for the project according with UN 2030 Agenda sustainability goals, cooperating with others African countries for doing the same with others Chinese investments in Africa, when possible. With high chance China is so interested in extending her economic influence in Africa to get more global diplomatic weight to be disposed to accept conditions of sustainability for her projects. It could be one of the few ways to do that China – but not only, also other countries that would like investing in Africa – massively reduce her emissions. And this will be more powerful based on how many countries will collaborate: it should be a priority because fast growing economies have to develop in sustainable way and must do pressure on developed countries, especially on China in that global big player that is trying to extend own power.


Sources:

  • (About climate issue and international relations)
    J. Grieco, G. J. Ikenberry, M. Mastanduno, Introduzione alle relazioni internazionali, UTET, 2017
  • (About Bagamoyo port project)
    D, Ayemba, Bagamoyo port project timeline and all you need to know, 15 April 2021, on Construction Review Online
  • P. Mittal, Tanzanian Bagamoyo Port Project Story, 16 September 2020, on Belt and Road News.
  • A. D’Amaro, Un ponte tra Cina e Africa: il porto di Bagamoyo, Tanzania, 8 September 2020, on Lo Spiegone.

Clean drinking water condition in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia). General Overview

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By Ekaterina Kilima – Art in Tanzania internship

According to the World Bank (2019), Ethiopia is one of the priority African countries for the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP) programs. In other words, a lot of money is being invested in Ethiopia to improve its water and sanitation systems. Currently, Addis Ababa is considered a region with very safe drinking water (85 % of water is low risk) compared to other regions of Ethiopia (only 7% of water is low risk in particular places) (CSAE 2017). Access to clean drinking water is a big inequality issue as the region’s poorest people barely have access to high quality water unlike the richest group.

A recent epidemiological study conducted by Wolde et al. (2020) suggested that the clean water in Addis Ababa might be exposed to bacteria and parasites more during the wet season (January-October) due to high rainfall. The results of the study have shown that, although mostly insignificant, slight contamination was found in the water samples from public taps and reservoirs (around 6% each). Traces of fecal coliforms and total coliforms were found in those samples. The highest contamination results were observed in the water samples from springs and wells (76% and 79% contamination respectively). The number of fecal coliforms was decreasing with every week of the season while the number of total coliforms was increasing. Moreover, some samples were collected from Akaki, Gefersa, and Lege Dadi water plants but the parasitological results for them were negative. Wolde et al (2020) also note that the quality of the water might depend on the condition of the water supply reservoirs. For example, most reservoirs in Addis Ababa are well maintained. However, most springs are often exposed to heavy rain, flood, and microorganism contamination. It is important to check the serviceability of the public and private taps in a timely manner and to prevent them from being tied with cloths, ropes, and plastic tubes as it can enhance the contamination. This statement can also be proved by another study conducted by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia in 2017. It was found that nearly 95% of households that receive low-risk water, get it from improved high-quality sources. The most common source of clean drinking water was the piped water on premises while the most dangerous was unprotected springs and surface water (CSAE 2017).

Some key lessons to remember are that the highest quality water is usually consumed in urban areas rather than rural and this water comes from secured and improved sources such as public pipes or kiosks. Bottled water is also a good source of high-quality water but is not consumed by many people. It is important to maintain the quality of the water reservoirs and make necessary repairments to ensure that people get good quality water. One of the biggest social issues regarding water supply is inequality because Addis Ababa poorest areas still do not have access to clean water.

Sources:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339804186_Quality_and_safety_of_municipal_drinking_water_in_Addis_Ababa_City_Ethiopia

https://washdata.org/report/drinking-water-quality-ethiopia-ess-2016